Tuesday, July 31, 2007

DELAYS AND NEW VENTURES

P'n'R had to temporarily be placed on hold due to a few crazy deals at work and two intriguing


entrepreneurial ventures starting up. Look for new posts on August 4th/5th covering:

1. Revamped Power Ranking - One ranking with only playoff contenders included;
2. Report card on preseason prospect predictions;
3. September call-ups to watch for; and
4. Report card on preseason predictions for team records, playoffs and awards

Thanks for your patience -- hope all is well!

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

NL Power Rankings (July 10, 2007)

Team/Record/This Week (Last Week) - Comments

Padres/49-38/1 (1) - 1st in the NL in ERA, OPSA, WHIP and QS; 3rd in BAA. Good thing, as the Pad's rank dead last in BA and OBP, in are in the bottom 3 in SLG and OPS. It helps when this guy (-->) is your second best starter -- (8-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .197 BAA).

Dodgers/49-40/2 (2) - Giving San Diego a run for best staff (2nd in ERA, OPSA and QS; 3rd in WHIP). Dodgers have been getting on base (3rd in NL at .340) but continue to struggle at hitting for power (11th in SLG, 10th in OPS). We'll see if LA parts with some young talent in an effort to solidify the offense.

Braves/47-42/3 (6) - Smoltz's health will be a large factor in the Braves ability to compete for the NL East crown in the second half. The most encouraging aspect of Atlanta's first half is they were able to stay with the Mets despite less-than-head-spinning showings from A. Jones, McCann and Francoeur. Looking forward to '08, Atlanta has to be excited that Salty seems to be holding his own at first. Maybe there's room on the same roster for the two catching prospects after all.

Brewers/49-39/4 (3) - The Cubs surged and the Brewers held them off. Braun has been raking, and Fielder is the first half NL MVP. Sheets has stayed healthy and Gallardo handled his call up to Milwaukee with poise. While I was originally anxious in seeing Gallardo shifted to the pen, he might be a welcome addition to what is right now the teams biggest weakness.
Mets/48-38/5 (4) - I keep saying I don't believe the staff is good enough to beat the best in the NL over the course of a seven game series, and Maine and Perez continue to make a compelling argument to the contrary. A sweep at the hands of the up-and-comer Rockies and a split with the Astros was not exactly an inspired end the to the first half. Still, the Mets are in first -- isn't that ultimately what matters?

Rockies/44-44/6 (9) - I promise to go one week without bringing up the rookie shortstop that is blossoming into one of the most entertaining players to watch in all of baseball. Instead, let's give some love to the guy nipping at Prince's heels in the MVP race (.341/.964, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 56 R). Holliday has established himself as the cornerstone in one of the NLs most potent offenses (1st in BA and OBP; 3rd in OPS and Runs; 5th in SLG). A lack of pitching depth means the Rox will struggle to stay with LA and San Diego in the second half, but they certainly have the bats required to meet those teams head-on.

Diamondbacks/47-43/7 (5) - The Snakes have come back down to earth. As expected this young squad has been up and down -- most recently down having dropped 8 of the last 10. How loaded is the farm system/youth at the major league level? The D-backs likely will not be interested in discussing a new contract with the soon-to-be free agent Eric Byrnes (who was the 1st half team leader in BA, HR, RBI, R, SB and OPS).

Phillies/44-44/8 (7) - The Phils have raked their way into striking distance of the wild card (top 5 in BA, RS, OBP, SLG and OPS). Unfortunately, the staff is nowhere near playoff calibre. Hamels continues to flash staff ace stuff (10-4, 3.72/1.21, 124 K/ 118.2 IP), but there simply isn't enough there this year. To make matters worse, there isn't much in the farm system exciting potential trade partners.

Cubs/44-43/9 (8) - The Cubs are the current trendy pick for NL Central champs -- I'll stick with my preseason Brew Crew. Still, it would be disingenuous to ignore the fact that Chicago is currently one of, if not the, hottest teams in the NL having won 12 of their last 16. Despite a lineup consisting of A-Ram, Lee and Soriano, the Cubs have struggled to score runs (1oth in NL in RS). The staff has carried the load, however, and ended the first half ranked in the top 5 in ERA, BAA, OPSA, WHIP and QS.

Marlins/42-47/10 (10) - Hanley Ramirez has been a pleasure to watch through the first three months -- .331/.388/.538, 14 HR, 35 RBI, 70 R, 27 SB). If the Fish are willing to part with Willis -- preferably for some young hitting -- they could be poised for a series of playoff runs that could last for several years starting '09. Already stocked with some solid young arms in Miami, Chris Volstad (pictured right) will arrive in a couple of years with the rest of his highly touted High-A Hammerhead staff.
Pirates/40-48/11 (11) - Bucs continue to show signs of promise, posting an impressive 5-2 record last week against Milwaukee (3-1) and Chicago (2-1). The young arms have been hit and miss but encouraging. At some point, however, the Pirates will have to sign some young bats. Even if McCutchen turns it around this year and is ready to contribute in '08, it will take much more to fix this offense (currently ranked 12th in BA and 14th in RS, OBP, SLG and OPS).

Cardinals/40-45/12 (12) - Tying run on third; winning run on second; Pujols available to pinch hit. What would you do? Please fax your answers to 312-XXX-X5X3, Attn: Mr. Tony La Russa.
Astros/39-50/13 (13) - Now that Biggio has his milestone, can we please let Chris Burke play at second?

Giants/38-48/14 (14) - Five more to go for Barry. If the Giants make a run at the big catch this off-season, San Fran fans may be treated to the breaking of the greatest record in baseball twice in ten years.

Reds/36-52/15 (16) - My guess is less than two weeks until you see Joey Votto (pictured right) doing this in Cincy. Any guesses when Bailey will get things straightened out? I can't believe this wasn't foreseen by the Cincy front office. Usually, if a kid is having difficulty with command over his offspeed stuff at AAA, he won't have it figured out by the time he steps off the plane and into the majors.

Nationals/36-52/16 (15) - Hopefully they get something for Cordero. I also hear the new stadium is looking good.

NL MVP - Prince Fielder, Brewers (.289/.376/.620, 29 HR, 70 RBI, 22 2B)

NL Cy Young - Jake Peavy, Padres (9-3, 2.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .213 BAA, 125 K/34 BB/ 119 IP)

NL RoY - Hunter Pence, Astros (.342/.367/.589, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 7 SB)

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

AL Power Rankings (July 10, 2007)

Team/Record/This Week (Last Week) - Comments

Tigers/52-34/1 (3) - Tigers finish strong with a 5-1 week, including 2 of 3 from Cleveland and a 3 game sweep of the BoSox. Tough not to peg Detroit as the team to beat in the AL, especially with the gradual emergence of Andrew Miller (3.31/1.30) who put up a 7 inning one run performance against Boston last Friday (6 K, 3 H, 4 BB). Offense is also 1st in the AL in SLG, OPS, BA and runs, and 3rd in OBP.

Red Sox/53-34/2 (4) - Despite a sweep at the hands of the above team, Boston locks up the number 2 spot through the All Star Break. While the Sox haven't been lighting up the scoreboard (7th in the AL in scoring), they continue to get on base (1st in AL - .358) and knock the ball around (3rd in SLG - .437). The runs will come. Pitching staff continues to cruise (2nd in AL in ERA, OPS and WHIP; 3rd in BAA, 5th in QS), and Lester should be able to fill in for Schilling. There aren't any threats remaining in the East, so Boston can focus on playing solid ball and resting up for October.

Indians/52-36/3 (2) - How impressive has V-Mart been through the first half? How about .324/.382/.553, 16 HR and 68 RBI. Think how good this offense could be in the second half if Grady and Pronk catch fire. Adam Miller looked solid in his first start since returning from the DL, and could be a fine addition to the staff or pen in August if everything goes according to plan.

Angels/53-35/4 (1) - Angels stumble into the break dropping 2 of 3 against both the Rangers and the Yankees (not exactly the cream of the AL crop right now). Still, you can't ignore the impressive three months of baseball the LAAoA have produced, including a staff that is top 5 in the AL in ERA, BAA, OPSA, WHIP and QS (this with Santana, Colon and Weaver under-performing).

Twins/45-43/5 (5) - Here starts "the rest" of the AL. Twins finish the first half seven games back of the current Wild Card Indians. Minnesota has been a good second half team over the last couple of seasons, and they will have to replicate that effort in 2007 if they want to continue play in October. Good to see Garza up and throwing well (at least through his first start). The Twins have stated he'll get at least one more -- if that goes well I expect him to stick, as his stuff is better than any other prospect they have.

Mariners/49-36/6 (7) - Seattle is just a game and a half back of Cleveland for the Wild Card, but it's hard to imagine this team competing throughout the remainder of the season. Again, I cite: 11th in the AL in QS, WHIP, BAA; 10th in ERA; 7th in OPSA. The biggest win for Seattle may be the fact that a strong showing this year could go a long way towards convincing Ichiro to stay put.

Yankees/42-43/7 (9) - The Yanks will make a run, I'm sure, over the next three weeks. Unfortunately, it may be a case of too little too late. A run differential of +70 tells me this team is probably not as flawed as the media would have us believe. More likely, we're looking at the 2006 Indians all over again, with nothing but bad luck (and, okay, a bad bullpen) to blame.

Blue Jays/43-44/8 (8) - Jays took 2 of 3 from each of the A's and Indians to close out their first half. It would be nice to see a little more offense, but it's hard to argue with the staffs ranking of 4th in AL in BAA, OPSA and QS. Riccardi may be expressing frustration at AJ and his contract, but I'd like to know how he feels about BJ's bloated deal.

Athletics/44-44/9 (6) - Like the Twins, the A's have enjoyed great second halfs the last couple of years, and like the Twins, they will need a repeat performance in '07. The improvements are going to have to come from the offense, as I'm not sure how you improve on a staff leading the AL in ERA, OPSA, WHIP and QS and 2nd in BAA.

White Sox/39-47/10 (12) - Congrats to Kenny Williams and the southsiders on signing Buehrle (shown right, celebrating). Let's see how quickly they can unload Dye (and whether they can get anything of substance in return). I'd check Arizona to see if Brett Anderson is available, but my guess is that's aiming high. The supplemental pick may be more valuable than anything they get through trade talks.

Rangers/38-50/11 (14) - Rangers take 2 of 3 from LA and Baltimore over the last week. With bullpen arms available (Gagne and Otsuka), look for lots of trade rumors -- especially involving Boston and Philly. There's really not a market out there for Teix, so Texas will have to plan on a pipe-dream run at the playoffs next year and a supplemental pick in '09.

Royals/38-50/12 (13) - Like the Rangers, the Royals have an arm to trade in Dotel, and will likely pull the trigger. Gordon is starting to look like the RoY candidate we all expected back in April. It's going to be a lot of fun watching him and Butler in the lineup together.

Orioles/38-49/13 (10) - Despite solid efforts from the pitching staff as of late, Baltimore limps into the break after a disappointing first half. Guthrie, Bedard, Roberts and Markakis give the team a decent core, but they are two or three bats and another starter away from making any noise. Tejada's injury means no big trade in July -- although I'm not sure this year's Tejada would bring back anything worth the removal of his bat from the lineup. Next up for O's fans is the signing of Wieters in August...at least I hope so.

Devil Rays/34-53/14 (12) - Rays have dropped 20 of their last 25. The young bats have been fun to watch this first half -- especially Upton, Young and Harris. It's nice to see Pena living up to his hype; better late than never. Looking forwad to seeing how Longoria fares against MLB pitching -- he's been good for .301/.396/.522, 8 HR and 17 2B for the Biscuits so far this year. Look for a September call-up.

AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez, Yankees (.317/.413/.665, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 21 2B, 9 SB)

AL Cy Young - Dan Haren, Athletics (10-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA, 101 K/32 BB/ 129.1 IP)

AL RoY - Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles (4-2, 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .207 BAA, 72 K/ 18 BB/ 102 IP)

Monday, July 2, 2007

AL Power Rankings (July 2, 2007)

Team/Record/This Week (Last Week) - Comments

Angels/51-31/1(3) - Halos taking 2 of 3 from the Orioles is barely news-worthy. The "barely", however, is the fact that this brought them to a franchise best 51-31 after 82. Well balanced team is ranked in the top 5 in the AL in BA, Runs, OBP, OPS, SB, ERA, BAA, OPSA, SV, WHIP and QS. Great to see Kotchman producing, and Kendrick getting back to full strength.

Indians/49-32/2(4) - PnR's pick for the AL Pennant looking strong as we head into the last week of the first half. 5th in BA, 2nd in Runs, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in OPS -- all without the usual Pronk. Cleveland has to start thinking about moving V-Mart to 1st full time. It's getting harder and harder to risk an injury (.323/.384/.583, 14 HR).

Tigers/47-33/3(2) - Herculean effort from Bonderman and a well-timed HR from Thames prevent Twins and Baker (3 H in 8 IP) from securing the sweep. Manny over Sheff for All-Star honors doesn't sit well; nor does Polanco starting over Roberts. Anyone disagree? Detroit gets huge challenge heading into the break with six at home against the Tribe and the Bo-Sox.

Red Sox/49-31/4(1) - Getting swept by the M's and losing two of three to the Rangers is simply unacceptable. Fortunately for Boston, the rest of the AL East has been equally inept, as of late. Sox get a chance to rebound with four against the Rays before a three game trip to Detroit to end the first half.

Twins/42-38/5(7) - Thames's homerun is the difference between a five- and three-game deficit to Detroit. If the Twins want to keep this a three team race through September, they are going to have to figure out a way to drive in some runs (8th in Runs, 12th in OPS). Having Mauer healthy will be a huge step in the right direction. Santana back to Cy-form after a slow start (2.76, 9.47K/IP) -- Johan has allowed three or fewer runs in eleven of his last twelve starts.

Athletics/42-39/6(6) - I almost forgot what a hitting catcher looks like in an Oakland uniform (Suzuki, pictured right). A's are primed for their annual second-half sprint towards the playoffs. This year, however, it doesn't look like the LAAoA are going to be quite so willing to fold. Given the current state of the staff (1st in ERA, BAA, OPS, WHIP and QS), imagine what Oakland could do if Harden could stay healthy for even 15 starts...

Mariners/45-33/7(9) - Come on, this can't continue for long can it (bottom third in AL in ERA, BAA, OPS, WHIP and QS)? I'm thinking Hargrove has the right idea by bailing while the team is twelve over .500. I'll second that notion; anyone else want off this ill-conceived bandwagon?

Blue Jays/39-42/8(11) - Mired in a four game losing streak, the Jays have missed a good opportunity to gain some ground on the Sox. While neither has been awful, you have to wonder if this is what JP had in mind when he signed Wells and Thomas to their respective contracts this offseason.

Yankees/37-41/9(5) - Yankees have one shot left to make a run at the playoffs. That chance comes with 28 games against Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City and Chicago to start the second half. Looking at the offense (top 5 in AL in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and Runs) it's tough to figure how this team is four under .500 -- then you look at the pitching (bottom 5 in AL in ERA, OPSA, WHIP and QS).

Orioles/35-45/10(9) - Starting pitching has been a bright spot (2nd in AL in BAA and 3rd in AL in OPSA), including staff ace Bedard (3.36/1.18 and AL leading 125 K's) and rookie Guthrie (1.74 ERA in 11 GS). Unfortunately, there's not much to look forward to in '07 -- only the Royals have scored fewer runs and hit fewer homeruns in the AL. McPhail and the rest of the front office will be praying that some pop emerges from the farm system between Rowell, Reimold and Wieters (provided he signs).

Devil Rays/33-47/11(12) - Rays have dropped seven in a row and thirteen of seventeen. If Baldelli could only stay healthy, Tampa could have shipped him this May for some pitching. Even with the dearth of young hitters, the Rays will need at least one more arm to add to Shields/Kazmir/Price/Niemann if they want to compete by 2010.

White Sox/35-43/12(8) - Who'd-a-thunk a line-up full of aging stars, OBP dumpsters and a strategy of bunting and stealing would eventually lead to disaster? Certainly not the south-side proponents of Ozzie-ball. "What can I do? All this worked back in 2005," exclaimed a befuddled Guillen.

Royals/34-48/13(13) - Bottom third in BA, Runs, OBP, SLG, OPS, ERA, BAA, OPSA, WHIP and QS. Not much to work with, here. Pre-season RoY hopefully Alex Gordon seems to have found his stroke, going .327/.383/.500 in June. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Wright-esque second half, with 12-15 HR/SB.

Rangers/34-47/14(14) - Usual struggles from the staff (13th or lower in ERA, BAA, OPSA, WHIP and QS) and a surprising first half from the Mariners have left the Rangers as the only AL West team with nothing to look forward to for the rest of the season. Given his contract, it was going to be tough to move Teixeira even before his injury. It's going to be tough watching him walk at the end of '08 and getting nothing but a pick to show for it.
AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers (.369/.444/.617, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 34 2B)
AL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Athletics (10-2, 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .202 BAA, 98 K/31 BB/123 IP)
AL RoY: Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles (4-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 11 GS; 2 runs or fewer in 10 of 11 GS)

Friday, June 29, 2007

NL Power Rankings (July 2, 20007)

Team/Record/This Week (Last Week) - Comments

Padres/46-34/1 (2) - Major League best 271 runs allowed (3.01 ERA). Peavy/Young an interesting juxtaposition against soft-tossing control specialists Maddux and Germano. The bullpen is pretty nasty, too. Bradley and Barrett might be enough to make the Padres the team to beat in the NL through the 2nd half (raise your hand if you ever thought you'd see that sentence in print anywhere?)

Dodgers/46-36/2 (3) - After dropping 2 of 3 to the Padres, the Dodgers will finish the first half with four against the Fish and three against the Braves. Martin and Loney continue to impress, and the starting rotation isn't far behind San Diego. Should be a great race from here on out.

Brewers/47-34/3 (6) - Last year, Braun and Gallardo were showcased in the futures game (pictured right). It's not a stretch to think they could find their way back to the All-Star festivities in the Bronx. Can't say I agree with dropping Gallardo to the pen in favor of Capuano, but at least Milwuakee has stayed away from the silly "back to Nashville" talk.

Mets/46-34/4 (1) - David Wright has a legitimate shot at 30-30 this year (currently 14-17). Staff continues to impress, despite pre-season second-guessers (PnR certainly included) -- 2nd in QS (49), 2nd in ERA (3.65), 1st in BAA (.234), 3rd in OPSA (.696) and 2nd in WHIP (1.25).

Diamondbacks/46-37/5 (4) - Run differential not too impressive (-17), nor is losing back-to-back series against the Giants and Dodgers. Snakes will need a lot more offense if they want to keep pace with the Dodgers and Padres (currently ranked 12th in NL in OBP, 14th in BA and 12th in runs).

Braves/43-39/6 (5) - Braves missed a prime opportunity to take charge in the East in June. With the final two first half series on the road against the Dodgers and Padres -- and the Mets facing Colorado and Houston -- Atlanta could be looking at 6-8 game deficit going into the 2nd half. Will Soriano be closing by the end of July?

Phillies/42-40/7 (7) - Nothing worse than being a buyer in July with nothing to offer. Hopefully Myers is effective in his return, but it's going to take more to stay with the Mets (as evidenced by this weekend's near sweep). On the bright side, Utley is OPSing an impressive .985 and Howard has a healthy second half to look forward to. No matter what the voters say, Rollins is having an All-Star calibre season.

Cubs/40-40/8 (13) - Don't fret, Carlos, Barrett is gone and you're throwing like yourself again. Odds still in favor of Barrett getting the last laugh, as the Cubbies are probably not built to stay with Milwuakee and San Diego should be a virtual lock for the post-season. Good opportunity to make a run with four against the Nats and three against the Bucs going into the break.
Rockies/39-43/9 (8) - Rough stretch for the Rox, who have dropped nine of their last ten. There has been cause for excitement in the first half, but stretches like these will likely continue until the team gets a little more experience under their belt. Solid offense (top half of the NL in most offensive categories) and iffy pitching (bottom half of the NL in most pitching categories) par for the Colorado Course.

Marlins/38-44/10 (9) - I was expecting more from one of last-year's more entertaining teams. Rough week ahead in San Diego and LA; 2nd half reprieve with first three series against DC, StL, and Cincy. Strong group of power arms waiting in the wings (and current crop of youngsters lead by Cabrera, Ramirez, Willingham, etc.) should translate into another playoff run in the next three years.

Pirates/35-46/11 (11) - Freddy Sanchez is a curious choice for the All-Star team, no? Especially with Gorzy turning in such an impressive first half (not to mention leaving off Sanchez would have made room in the IF for Ramirez/Rollins). Young pitching still fun to watch, but at some point you have to draft and sign some big bats.

Cardinals/36-42/12 (12) - 15th in ERA (4.89) and 14th in QS, watching Haren in the All-Star game will be particularly tough for Cards fans. Toss in a bottom-third ranking in OBP, SLG and runs scored, and you have the perfect recipe for not defending a World Series title.

Astros/35-47/13 (15) - Congrats to Biggio on #3,000 (as well as 1-2,999). Not sure he did the Astros any favors by sticking around to pursue this milestone (his .293 OBP/ .393 SLG has been far from impressive), but I guess he's earned the right...hasn't he? Now, will some one PLEASE let Burke get some regular time at 2b?!

Giants/35-45/14 (10) - How pretty would Cain, Baker, Liriano, Lowry and Lincecum (shame on those of you who were starting to doubt Timmay!) look for the next four or so years? How about with Nathan in the bullpen? Giants should be big sellers this month, at least in part to prep for a run at Arod in the offseason.

Nationals/33-48/15 (14) - While they're a far cry from the worst team in baseball history -- which some predicted they would be -- the Nationals still have a ways to go before they can be called a decent squad. One All-Star "snub" you won't read about is Dmitri Young (yes, partially because it's not that big of a snub). Still, it's nice to see the Meat Hook put up a solid first half after such an ugly end to 2006.

Reds/30-49/16 (16) - Homer Bailey has been dreadful, and I fully expect him to find his way back to Louisville soon. Cincy will try to peddle Dunn and Griffey, but there isn't really a huge market for expensive veterans now-a-days. There is no joy in Redsville; nor is there reason for optimism.

NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers (.281/.371/.614, 27 HR, 66 RBI, 20 2B)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (9-2, 2.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .214 BAA, 119 K/31 BB/ 112 IP)
NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.340/.367/.571, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 7 SB)

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Road to Omaha (Parts 3 and 4 of 4)

Many apologies, but problems at the office meant no time to finish the last two segments of the first Road to Omaha Series. As a recap, PnR's first 4 picks for Super Regionals were Texas/Oral Roberts and Virginia/Vanderbilt. The first 2 picks for Omaha were Texas and Vandy.

Now that we're caught up, here are the last 12 and 6 Super Regional and World Series picks, respectively:
Regional/Regional - Regional Winner/Regional Winner - Super Regional Winner


1. San Diego/Long Beach - San Diego/Long Beach State - San Diego
Comments: Brian Matusz (10-3, 2.73) ranks second in the nation with 156 strikeouts. He and Josh Romanski make up the best 1-2 punch in the Region. LB State is not the most talented team on paper, but battled through a brutal schedule to host a Regional. The battle-tested squad will have enough to escape a Regional that contains a slightly down Pepperdine and frightfully inconsistent UCLA, but not to get past the stacked Toreros.

Don't Forget About: UCLA and Pepperdine, who each are probably more talented than LBS on paper, and certainly capable of knocking off the Dirt Bags
. Give the slight nod to UCLA and a hot/cold tandem in Tim Murphy and Gavin Brooks.

2. Chapel Hill/Columbia - UNC/South Carolina - UNC
Comments: The days of South Carolina pounding UNC out of the Super Regionals are far gone. The Tar Heels are in great shape to make another run in Omaha, backed by Friday/Saturday tandem of Alex White and Luke Putkonen and a stable of solid arms in the pen. The Gamecocks have a potent offense (2nd in nation in HRs), but have been inconsistent on the mound. Give the Super Regional nod to the better staff.

Don't Forget About: Charlotte. If the offense pulls its weight (and Adam Mills takes care of the Brackman-less Wolfpack on Friday), Spencer Steedley and Zach Rosenbaum could give South Carolina all it can handle on Saturday and Sunday.

3. Tempe/Oxford - Arizona State/Mississippi - Arizona State
Comments: Ole Miss should not have trouble with its Regional, lining up against three teams with serious question marks (So. Miss - health of Trey Sutton, 1b/Troy and Sam Houston St. - starting pitching). ASUs offense lead the nation in scoring (9.6 runs/game), but might lack the pitching depth required for the 8-team double elimination format of the World Series. Fortunately for the Sun Devils, the Regional is only a 4-team tournament, and the Supers are just a best of 3.

Don't Forget About: UC Riverside. Baseball America describes Riverside as the "deepest collection of quality pitching on the West Coast." They'll certainly be tested in Tempe. If the Highlanders can steal one on Saturday or Sunday, their depth may be the difference on Monday's playoff.


4. Houston/College Station - Rice/Texas A&M - Rice
Comments: Rice began the season as the number one team in the nation, and are poised to make amends for last years meltdown against Oregon State in Omaha. While Baylor, TCU and Prarie View A&M are each strong squads, Rice is the most complete team and a heavy favorite. Texas A&M will look to play an up-tempo style offensively -- stealing, bunting and hitting-and-running. Aggies could make the Supers fun, but Rice's blend of power arms and power bats should take care of business in two.

Don't Forget About: Le Moyne. The Dolphins pulled the biggest upset of the 2006 tournament last year, knocking off #1 Nebraska. Bobby Blevins and Eric Beaulac
will look to provide a 1-2 punch on the mound; SS Andy Parrino will need to come up big for the offense.


5. Fayetteville/Columbia - Oklahoma State/Louisville - Louisville
Comments: Oklahoma State has been a bit of a disappointment this season. Still, the offense is one of the most talented in all of college baseball, and more than capable of slugging the Cowboys into the Supers. Louisville ranks 4th in the nation with a 2.89 team ERA. The Cardinals are my pick to be this year's surprise team in Omaha, relying on a talented and deep pitching staff to get them through to (and win a couple in) the World Series.

Don't Forget About: Arkansas and Missouri. Both #1 seeds are more than capable of winning their respective Regionals. Arkansas's biggest question question is pitching depth. If they are forced to a Monday game, they may have trouble keeping the opposition offense under 7 runs, regardless of who that opponent is. Missouri has an unproven, sophomore staff and benefited from a slightly down Big 12. Still, the Tigers have shown a knack for pulling out the close ones (8-0 in one run games), and shouldn't be counted out.


6. Tallahassee/Myrtle Beach - Florida State/Clemson - Florida State
Comments: FSU will throw Bryan Henry (14-1, 2.54), a veteran staff and a .355 team BA (best in the nation) at Miss St, Stetson and Bethune-Cookman. The Seminoles will be heavy favorites to be a three and done Regional winner. Clemson drew a great bracket, matching up one of the best staffs in the nation with a pitcher-friendly field at Coastal Carolina. Clemson was the only team to beat the Seminoles in a series during the regular season, and Saturday starter David Kopp dominated FSU in the ACC tourney, allowing 0 ER over 9 IP. It will be tough for the Tigers to get the best of the 'Noles for a third time this season.

Don't Forget About: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers flat out mash, boasting four players with 9 or more homeruns. The pitching is solid, with Friday starter Bobby Gagg (11-2, 2.75) leading the charge. Given the stadium, it may be tough for an offense that relies on the lo
ng ball to get past the pitching of Clemson. If they do, however, we could see some serious fireworks in an FSU/Coastal series.

Who gets to pile-up this year?

Summary:
Projected Regional Winners
- Texas, Oral Roberts, Vandy, UVA, San Diego, Long Beach St, UNC, South Carolina, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Rice, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St, Louisville, FSU and Clemson

Projected World Series - Rice, Vandy, UNC, Texas, San Diego, Arizona State, Florida State and Louisville

Projected Champion - Rice

Friday, June 1, 2007

NL Power Rankings (June 1, 2007)

Team Name/Record/This Week/Last Week - Comments

Mets/34-18/1/1 - Solid weak for the Mets, who finished 5-1 against the Marlins and Giants. Delgado is heating up, which will be key depending on how the Beltran injury shakes out. Not sure I'd part with prospects for Willis -- might as well ride the pitching as far as they can. The bats will keep them in most ballgames.

Padres/31-22/2/3 - Kouz continuing to look more and more like a MLB third-baseman. The staff is firing on all cylinders, ranked 1st in the NL in ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.15), 2nd in BAA (.233) and QS (32). I'd hate to be up against Peavy, Young. Maddux and Germano come October.

Dodgers/31-22/3/4 - 4-2 on the week with series wins against the Brewers and the (cough) Nats. Weekend against the Bucs before a showdown with the Padres. Loney is up; let's see if he has the stick to stay.

Diamondbacks/32-23/4/6 - A perfect week for the D-backs (6-0), extending their win streak to 7. Unless the Giants deal for one more big bat, this could be a three team race by July. Who am I kidding? It's a three team race no matter what. Youngsters will still be prone to slumps, though (see Stephen Drew).

Braves/31-23/5/2 - A sweep at the hands of the Phillies was not the start to the week Atlanta was looking for. After taking 2 of 3 from the struggling Brewers, the Braves get three more chances to get their footing against the toothless Cubbies.

Brewers/30-24/6/5 - Brew Crew continues to slump. Braun has already been called up, and (not to sound like a broken record, but...) Gallardo should follow soon. 2-5 last week was ugly, but inexplicably Milwaukee still holds a 6.5 game lead against the 2nd place Pirates (no that is not a typo).

Phillies/26-27/7/9 - Only a .500 week, but a sweep of the Braves has to count for something, right? Looks like Alfonseca will be the go-to-guy in the 9th for now...Look for some exciting endings!

Rockies/25-29/8/12 - The pitching is still questionable, but you have to love the way these kids have started to swing the bat. Any baseball fan who doesn't know Tulowitzki by now will by the end of the season. There simply is nothing this kid can't do defensively, and his bat could eventually yield .300-25-100 seasons.

Marlins/26-28/9/8 - The Fish drop a spot after a 3-4 week. It's nice to get a sweep against the Cubs, but the Mets gave Florida the same treatment Friday through Sunday. Who cares how much Cabrera weighs? The kid can flat out rake! .323/.397/.556/.953, with 10HR 14 2b and 37 RBI

Giants/25-27/10/7 - Zito looked like an ace for a game; so did Morris. Unfortunately, Cain and Lincecum are the only 2 sure things on the staff right now. That said, I love the upside of a Cain/Lincecum/Lowry/Zito/Sanchez staff for '08 and beyond. Bonds's slump has shown how fickle this offense truly is without its primary cog.

Pirates/23-30/11/15 - A 4-3 week may not be anything spectacular, but given the current state of National League baseball, it's enough for a four spot climb in the PnR PowerRankings. Odds are the Bucs will rejoin the bottom third of the Rankings next week with series against LA and Washington, but enjoy the bump (and 2nd in the NL Central) while it lasts.

Cardinals/22-29/12/13 - 3-4 this week, but series against the 'Stros and Reds gives a little hope to the Redbirds. If the Brewers continue their slide into next week, the Cards are amazingly in position to jump back into the NL Central Race.

Cubs/22-30/13/10 - Most drastically overhauled team continues to underperform. Actually, for anyone who was paying attention to the offseason, isn't this what we really expected? I hate to say it, Lou, but Tampa is looking pretty good right now.

Nationals/22-32/14/14- Nat's are doing their best to make sure the 2007 Season is not the record-breaking disaster that so many (myself included) predicted. DC gets the Padres and the Pirates this week.

Astros/22-31/15/11 - So...how do you drop from 6 to 15 in two weeks? You go 2-11, and get outscored 95-27. Right now, the Longhorns and Aggies would be sizeable favorites against the Astros...And I'm talking about these guys ---------->

Reds/21-34/16/16- The good news is Homer Bailey has looked sharp since returning to action. The bad news is the Reds are much more than one pitcher away from being a respectable Major League team.

NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers (.293/.374/.635/1.009, 19 HR, 43 RBI, 14 2B)

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (7-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .200 BAA, 92 K/21 BB/80.1 IP)

NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.348/.380/.583/.963, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 16 of 40 hits for extra bases)

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Road to Omaha: Regionals (Part 2 of 4)

Wichita Regional:
The Field:
#1 Wichita State (49-19), #2 Arizona (40-15), #3 Oral Roberts (40-15), #4 New Orleans (37-24)

Best Bet:
Wichita State - Wichita State came into '07 as a preseason top 10 team, and stayed consistent throughout the Spring. Last week's loss to Creighton was no real shock, but the loss to Missouri State (with MSU ace Detwiler pulled after 3 .1 IP with a split nail) was. Still, the Shockers remain the most talented team in the Wichita Regional, and should be slight favorites over Arizona, who finished second in the PAC 10. Wichita State's intimidating pitching staff (2.67 staff ERA, .229 staff BAA) will be crucial, as they will face off against three of the top Division I pitchers in Guilmet (Arizona), Chapman (Oral Roberts) and Hefner (Oral Roberts).

Sleeper:
Oral Roberts - Chance Chapman and Jeremy Hefner (pictured right) will be the key to a possible Oral Roberts upset and trip to the Super Regionals. Hefner (9-1, 2.53, .208, 105K, 25BB, 81.2 IP)went the distance in 5 of his 10 starts this season, making him a solid choice for Friday's meeting with Arizona. Potentially, Chapman (8-1, 1.23, . 202, 121K, 26BB, 88 IP) would get the ball next, and he and a fully rested staff would be responsible for winning Saturday and 1 of 2 on Sunday. ORU won't out-slug anyone in the Regional, but Hefner and Chapman should keep them in the game through the 7th, 8th and 9th inning -- anything can happen at that point.

Players to Watch:
Preston Guilmet, RHP, Arizona (pictured left) - PAC 10 ace sported an 11-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and .203 BAA. Guilmet also K'd 133 against 30 BBs in 126 IP. If the Wildcats can get past Oral Roberts with Mills or Coulon, Guilmet would give them an excellent chance against the Shockers on Saturday. It's questionable, however, whether 'Zona can afford to hold their ace out until the second game of the Regional, as Oral Roberts sports two co-aces with Friday stuff.

Chance Chapman, RHP, Oral Roberts - Chapman, the career and season ERA leader at ORU (1.34 and 1.23, respectively), posted an 8-1 record this season, while striking out a whopping 121 batters in just 88 innings. While both Chapman and Hefner will be fun to watch, the big game will be Saturday against Wichita State (my guess is Chapman gets the call).

Round Rock Regional:
The Field:
#1 Texas (44-15), #2 UC Irvine (40-15-1), #3 Wake Forest (33-27), #4 Brown (27-19)

Best Bet:
Texas - Ranked 4th nationally entering the Regionals, the Longhorns face a tough Irvine team and surprisingly able Brown offense out of the Ivy League. Texas matches up favorably against all three possible opponents, and boasts an offense that should keep them in every game (outscored opponents 423-236, or 3.16 runs a game). As with all Texas teams, however, the true strength is the pitching. The depth and talent gives the Longhorns an excellent chance to advance even if they drop one to UC-Irvine and are forced into an extra game or two (four starters this year ended with ERAs under 3, while a fifth sported an ERA of 3.97; as a team, opponents batted .246 against the staff). While Irvine advancing wouldn't be a total shock, Texas looks well suited to make another trip to the Super Regionals, and another run at Omaha.

Quasi-Sleeper:
UC Irvine - Hard to call the Anteaters a sleeper, but we'll give them the quasi-sleeper nod. Advancing out of the Round Rock Regional will be a tall order, but the Game 1 match-up with Wake makes it a little easier, as they'll likely be able to hold staff ace Wes Etheridge out until Saturday's potential meeting with the Longhorns. UC Irvine may have the biggest gripe with the selection committee, as many thought the Anteaters could potentially end up hosting a Regional, but instead wound up in Texas's backyard. Texas has the big bats to hit their way out of a tough Regional, but don't be surprised if UC-I sneaks out of Round Rock on Monday evening.

Players to Watch:
Kyle Russell, OF, Texas (pictured above right) - While Texas is loaded with talented hitters, Russell's pure power makes him, arguably, the most fun to watch (.341/.452/.825/1.277, 27 HR, 70 RBI, 174 TB in 211 AB). Look forward to some spectacular shots, and some spectacular misses (Russell also lead the team with 61 strikeouts).

Wes Etheridge, RHP, UC Irvine (pictured right) - Etheridge turned in an impressive season for the Anteaters (11-4, 2.88, .264, 96K, 24BB, 109.1 IP), and will likely be the arm they turn to on Saturday against Texas. Provided Scott Gorgon (the only other UC-I pitcher to start 10 or more games) can lead them past Wake on Friday, Etheridge's Saturday start will be the most important of the Regional.

Looking Ahead:
Super Regional Match-Up:
Oral Roberts (3-1) at Texas (4-1) - Oral Roberts pulls off the upset with wins in their first two games against 'Zona and Wichita State. The Shockers eliminate the Wildcats on Sunday morning before dropping to ORU in the rubber match on Monday. Texas stumbles on Saturday against Etheridge and UC Irvine, before knocking off Wake and Irvine on Sunday and Irvine on Monday to advance.

Heading to Omaha:
Texas (2-1 over Oral Roberts) - The Golden Eagles steal one between two solid starts from Chapman and Hefner, but the Texas bats prove too much. The Longhorns advance to Omaha in a Game 3 route.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Road to Omaha: Regionals (Part 1 of 4)

Nashville Regional:
The Field:
#1 Vanderbilt (51-11), #2 Michigan (39-16), #3 Memphis (36-25), #4 Austin Peay (39-20)
Our Pick:
Vanderbilt - Most complete team in college baseball received the #1 National Seed in the Field of 64. The 'Dores face the easiest Regional Bracket, with Michigan and Memphis slumping heavily. Failure to reach the Super Regionals would be a huge, huge upset.

Sleeper:
Michigan - The Wolverines have lost five of six and were two and out in the Big 10 Tournament. They remain the most talented team in the bracket not starting with "V", but there is not enough on the pitching staff to get them through a brutal Memphis offense on Friday and an even better Vandy offense on Saturday. That said, Austin Peay is heavily out-classed and Memphis's lack of pitching depth leaves the Wolverines as the only viable option.


Players to Watch:
David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt (pictured above) - Best pitcher in college baseball finished the year at 11-0, 2.71 ERA and .201 BAA. Incredible K/BB ratio of 175/29 in 123 IP.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt (pictured left) - On the season, .397/.467/.706, 17 HR. Helped Vandy capture SEC Tournament Championship with 13-24 performance (2 HR, 3 2B, 8 RBI).



Charlottesville Regional:
The Field:
#1 Virginia (43-14), #2 Rutgers (41-19), #3 Oregon State (38-17), #4 Lafayette (33-18)

Our Pick:
Virginia - Solid performer throughout the season and ACC tournament; failed to reach the championship game due to a tie-breaker loss to the Tar Heels. The Cavaliers will hope for an Oregon State win on Friday to avoid the streaking Rutgers offense. After being upset by Evansville in last year's Charlottesville Regional, look for UVA to come out focused and determined not to disappoint again at home.

Sleeper:
Rutgers - Scarlet Knights hit a school record 60 HRs this season, and will look to slug past UVA. The opening game against Oregon State will be the most important, as they will not want to go up against the Cavs needing to win two straight. A pitcher's park may make the Beavers a better bet, but it's hard to picture Oregon State scoring enough to beat UVA twice.

Players to Watch:
Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia (pictured above) - 11-0 on the season with a 1.35 ERA and .193 BAA. K/BB ratio of 96/26 over 106.2 IP.

Todd Frazier, SS, Rutgers (pictured left) - 13-25 performance (3 HR, 5 2B, 7 RBI) in the Big East Tournament landed him MVP honors and helped the Scarlet Knights to a Conference Championship and automatic bid. Led the Big East in slugging (.724) and home runs (19), 2nd in RBI (57) and 3rd in OBP (.494).

Looking Ahead:
Super Regional Match-up:
Virginia (3-1) at Vanderbilt (3-0) - Both UVA and Oregon State could give Vandy trouble. I am already anticipating taking off work next Friday in preparation for the David Price/Jacob Thompson show-down. UVA drops one to the Oregon State/Rutgers winner while Vandy advances with little trouble in the minimum three games.
Heading to Omaha:
Vanderbilt (2-1 over Virginia) - UVA's staff matches up well arm-for-arm, and should be able to take one of the first two before dropping to the number one overall seed. This should be one of the better Super Regionals if your a fan of pitching.

Next 5 (May 18) Update #2

Brief update on our predicted "Next 5 to Contribute":

When last we left you, Baker had been called up to the Twins and Votto was learning the outfield (presumably to give the Reds some idea as to whether he could plug into the OF).

The latest news out of Minnesota is that Ortiz is being shifted to the pen, and one of the Redwings will be taking his place on Friday. Rumor has it Slowey will be making the jump to Minnesota, which makes sense given his performance at AAA this year.


Remember when Milwaukee assured us all that there was absolutely no time table for Braun to get a shot with the big club? Yeah, he's up and hit his first HR on Saturday. He should be up to stay.

That's three of five so far for PnR. I still feel Gallardo will be up sooner rather than later, especially with the current six-game losing streak. Votto is another matter. If he progresses in the outfield, he could certainly see time come July/August.

We'll take a look and get our Next 5 out again once we see that Slowey is indeed up this Friday.