NL Power Rankings (May 25, 2007)

Team Name/Record/This Week/Last Week - Comments

Mets/29-17/1/1 - Went 3-3, including two losses to the Braves. Mets hold onto the top spot, but barely. ESPN may be convinced the pitching staff is "not as bad as advertised"; PnR is still quite skeptical.

Braves/28-19/2/2 - Smoltz picks up win 200 against the Amazin's. Braves still look like the team to beat in the East; especially if Andruw ever gets going.

Padres/22-19/3/5 - SD continues to ride strong pitching from Peavy, Young & co. Germano is starting to look like the real deal; yet another strong week for the pen.

Dodgers/27-20/4/4 - Pierre is back to the lead-off spot despite an OBP 68 points lower than Furcal (.303 vs .371). This is not the way to win a division.

Brewers/28-19/5/3 - Dropping series to Twins and Dodgers, 3-7 over last ten. If this drags on, expect to see Gallardo and Braun by early June.

Diamondbacks/26-23/6/7 - 3.77 team ERA has been enough to keep the snakes in most games. How long can these youngsters keep pace in the improving NL West?

Giants/24-22/7/8 - Bonds's struggles continue while the former Huskie continues to wow on the mound. Sanchez is back at AAA to get regular work; I wonder how long until he replaces Morris? -- I say one month and improved command over his off-speed stuff.

Marlins/23-24/8/11 - A big jumble from 8 through 11. The Fish get the nod with Myers going down and Houston incapable of scoring runs regularly.

Phillies/23-24/9/9 - Phils get Howard back but may lose Myers for an extended period. Not much in that bullpen for the Philly-Phanatics to get excited about.

Cubs/21-24/10/10 - Cubs hold fast at 10, but only because of Houston's ineptitude. Nice win in SD last night to avoid the sweep. This weekend doesn't get any easier with a trip to LA.

Astros/21-26/11/6 - Offensive struggles lead to 1-7 over last 8, including a 1-2 record against lonestar rivals. Outscored 55 to 11 over this stretch.

Rockies/20-27/12/13 - Looks like the Rox are the only team in the NL West that won't have a shot at the post season. Wonder if there will be any takers for Helton come July?

Cardinals/19-25/13/15 - Still a really bad team, but a three game win streak is a step in the right direction (disclaimer - three wins were against the Captain Jack Sparrows). Good fortune continues with weekend series against the Nats.
Nationals/19-29/14/16 - Not convinced the Nats aren't the worst team in the NL, the Pirates and Reds were just that bad this week. Battle of the unspectacular with the Cards this weekend.

Pirates/19-27/15/12 - Five game losing streak is ugly. Having to listen to Pirates of the Carribean references throughout ESPN/Disney Sportscenter is uglier. Savy?

Reds/18-30/16/14 - A 4.46 team ERA is not going to cut it, even in the NL Central. Hopefully Cincy will get some young pitching for Dunn in July.


NL MVP: J.J. Hardy, Brewers (.311/.353/.595/.948, 14 HR, 41 RBI, 12 2B)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (6-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .193 BAA, 77K, 66.1IP)
NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.341/.383/.614/.997, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 13 of 30 hits have gone for extra bases)

AL Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings (May 24, 2007)

Team Name / Record / This Week (Last Week) / Comments

Red Sox / 31-15 / 1 (1) / Went 3-3 against the Braves and Yanks but still scored 31 runs in 6 games.

Tigers / 28-17 / 2 (2) / Leading the majors in RS and right on Boston’s tail for best overall record in the AL.

Angels / 28-19 /3 (5) / Escobar pitched lights out this week and Vlad’s been a man on a mission.

Indians / 27-17 / 4 (3) / Sizemore and Hafner still don’t seem themselves but Fausto Carmona’s making people forget about offense and focus on dominant pitching instead.

Yankees / 21-24 / 5 (6) / Still under .500 but won an important series with Boston by getting quality starts from their aces (Wang/Pettitte).

A’s / 23-23 / 6 (4) / I can’t quite put my finger on why I don’t like this team. They’re scoring more than they used to but their lineup still seems like a house of cards…

Twins / 22-24 / 7 (7) / That’s more like it! Johan’s last two starts: 14 IP, 24 K, 1.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP.

White Sox / 23-20 / 8 (8) / Unbelievably, they’ve scored the fewest runs in the AL. This was a World Champion two years ago?

Mariners / 21-21 / 9 (10) / Ichiro got hot and King Felix returned. Maybe Richie Sexson will get his average over .200 next?

Orioles / 21-25 /10 (9) / Blaming Perlozzo for the GM’s bad buys in the bullpen seems unfair.

Blue Jays / 20-25 / 11 (11) / With Halladay and BJ Ryan on the DL, this team seems snake-bitten. How much longer before AJ Burnett joins them?

Devil Rays / 18-27 / 12 (12) / Has anyone seen Rocco Baldelli recently? Hopefully Elijah Dukes hasn’t killed him...

Royals / 19-28 / 13 (14) / Mark Teahan and Odalis Perez led the team to a winning week.

Rangers / 18-29 / 14 (13) / Teixeira’s heating up and Sosa’s been surprisingly productive but the team still can’t get any quality pitching.

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers (.345/.429/.691, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 21 2B)
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox (7-0, 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.34 K/9)
AL RoY: BJ Upton, Devil Rays (.308/.384/.555, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 9 SB)

Next 5 (May 18) Update

Baker Called Up:
Baker got the call for Saturday's start and picked up a win in his first start of the season. Congrats from PnR.

Game Stats: 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 0BB, 5K, W

Votto Now Learning the OF:

Joey Votto is now getting playing time out in LF for the Louisville Bats. This is a good sign if, like PnR, you anticipate the Reds will move some players to make way for the young prospect. A late-July deal and early August call-up seems the most likely.

Apologies to Jay Bruce:

In the "Next 5" last week, PnR incorrectly labelled Votto is the second most highly rated prospect in the Reds organization. As most of you know, that distinction belongs to Jay Bruce, the young OF currently raking in Sarasota for the High A club. Bruce was motivated by this snub, going 5-15 with 3BB and 3 2B since being overlooked. His current season line is impressive, and he figures to get a call up to Chattanooga -AA some time this season (although we'd like to see fewer Ks before he makes the jump).

Stat Line: .350/.404/.644/1.048, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 15 2B, 5 3B, 177 AB, 43K, 18BB

Bud Selig Continues to Disgrace Himself (and the Game)

One of the main privileges of holding the commissionership of baseball is being entrusted with a vague but powerful clause in Article II, Section 2(b) the Major League Baseball Constitution which gives the commissioner the power to act in the “best interests of the game.” This “best interests” clause has been used by many commissioners over the years, and the Supreme Court of the United States has even positively affirmed and reinforced the commissioner’s right to invoke the “best interests” clause in nearly all matters of baseball governance.

I bring up the “best interests” clause because I wish to contrast that with everything that has taken place over the 15 years of Bud Selig’s commissionership. I will not discuss how he has blemished the integrity of the game by accepting loans from a current owner in exchange for a favorable ruling on the potential contraction of a team, nor will I discuss how he rigged the sale of three teams in order to reward loyalty at the expense of open competition. I won’t even mention the fact that, at one time, he was the owner of a small-market club and secured a labor contract that directly benefited his own bottom line, all the while sitting behind the desk of the commissioner’s office.

Instead, I will focus on how Bud Selig, in his quest for the appearance of diligence and competence, has disgraced himself and the game by leaking private information as a form of revenge. As all will no doubt remember, last week Jason Giambi gave a candid interview to USA Today about his own regrets for having used steroids and his desire that all of baseball own up to its mistakes in that regard. Today, it was reported that Giambi had tested positive for amphetamines within the last year. To me, the timing of this revelation is extremely suspect. I interpret this news as Selig smearing Giambi in the press because he dared to speak in public and on the record.

The irony is that Selig has been trying to coerce teams and players to cooperate with his appointed crony George Mitchell in Mitchell’s investigation of the steroids scandal. Funny, then, that Selig would resent a player openly and frankly discussing his past involvement with steroids but would seek to compel them to talk with Mitchell in the same honest manner.

It amazes me that Giambi’s personal opinion would generate such backlash and anger. What is Selig so upset about? Isn’t it an open secret that everyone – players, agents, owners, team management, members of the press – knew about the sport’s rampant addiction to (and endorsement of) steroids? Does Selig think that smearing Giambi is an effective means of damage control? If anything, it obscures the process that Selig appointed Mitchell to lead and is totally counter to the “best interests” clause.

And there, folks, is the rub. See, Selig isn’t interested in solving the steroids problem in baseball, he’s merely interested in giving off the whiff of propriety and discipline. He’d rather smear Giambi (and Bonds before him) than confront the reality that baseball needs steroids and all the side benefits it provides – tape-measure homeruns, jacked-up radar gun readings, the ability for players to grind through the fatigue of a 162-game season.

So, to Jason Giambi, the message is clear: it doesn’t pay to tell the truth when you’re working for liars. Then again, Giambi should’ve known that already if he bothered to see what baseball has done to Mark McGwire.

The Road to Omaha (Part 1): Introduction

Here at PnR we realize we're in the minority when it comes to following College Baseball (a trend that seems to be thankfully changing). We're sure that next year will be the year you start checking the web on Monday's to see how the best young college players performed over their weekend series -- don't worry, we'll help you.

For now, let's start with a quick prep for this year's Regionals, Super Regionals and World Series. While there's too much to cover to give you an intimate understanding of what has transpired this year, we can give you a glimpse into who the favorites are in the conference tournaments (or championship series), who the top performers have been this year and who the disappointments have been. We'll be a little late with the Big East (the tournament starts today), but I'll try get the Big East and ACC out tonight.

Pictured (Todd Frazier, SS, Rutgers and Bryant Henry, RHP, Florida State)

Baseball Writing In Disrepair

DISCLAIMER: EXTREMELY LONG!

I’m in a fine rage this morning. Buster Olney, who is actually beginning to annoy me at this point, wrote the following on Saturday morning (with my responses included):

“You wonder now if Giambi was sincere, whatsoever, with his initial apology…was it simply a media relations ploy?” Look, of course Giambi’s first apology was a PR ploy. Quite frankly, aren’t most apologies at least partly an act of self-absolution? Giambi’s 2005 apology was as much about getting the heat off him for putrid performance during the 2003 playoffs and the 2004 season as it was to get control of the BALCO story that included him, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, and others. And what’s so wrong with that? There was a degree of sincerity to his apology, of that I have no doubt. But what’s the difference if it was 5% sincere or 100% sincere? It achieved Giambi’s goal of getting the bull’s-eye off his back.

Why does Olney care anyway? Have all of Olney’s mea culpas been totally genuine? I’d be willing to bet he’s offered a few apologies in his day that were more about getting his ass off the hot seat than they were about earnest regret. So fuck Olney’s judgmental tone.

“He still has never really been up front and honest about the issue...” He hasn’t? Really? Well then I guess Mark McGwire hasn’t either. I mean, we’re crucifying McGwire and holding him out of the Hall of Fame for something we think he did, not for something he admitted to doing. If anything, Giambi’s been the most forthcoming about his past steroid use. What’s Olney’s beef here? Does anyone have to read between the lines and guess as to what Giambi’s alluding to? Giambi’s pretty much admitted to everything. I don’t see how we can doubt his frankness at this point, seeing as though he’s told us that he used steroids in his career.

“There is something mildly offensive about Giambi saying that others should apologize for the steroid issue...he committed the crime...walked away with the cash, lied repeatedly about whether he used steroids until he was scared into speaking the truth before the grand jury and has never come clean, completely. And now he’s saying others should apologize? Please.” The media has been screaming for accountability and now Olney is offended by someone stepping up and asking for the same thing? Is it a case of playing semantics or is Olney this obtuse? Giambi’s apology – the one where HE said HE was sorry for what HE had done – also included a statement where he thinks that everyone in baseball should own up for past mistakes.

This isn’t Giambi shirking responsibility here nor is he trying to pass the buck. He’s taking ownership of his own errors (the only thing an individual can do, after all) and volunteering his opinion on what he thinks would be the best way to get past this issue. Olney disagrees? No one else should apologize? It’s wrong for someone who made a mistake to ask that others who made the same mistake or have complicity in the same “crime” to own up to past errors? What’s so offensive about that?

“There’s no doubt that the entire institution of baseball shares the blame for what happened. But for one of the users of the “stuff” to criticize other players and owners, implicitly, reflects the arrogance of a burglar who got away with the goods.” I hardly see the arrogance in Giambi’s position. The media shares as much, if not more, of the blame because the steroids era happened on their watch. Those members of the media who are earning their money and gaining exposure on ESPN or other outlets by offering with their neo-McCarthyism should remember that they – not the fans – were in the locker-room watching these guys walk around looking like Incredible Hulks.

And where was Olney in all of this? With his head in the sand, pretending not to notice that middle infielders were suddenly weighing 200 lbs. with ripped physiques? The height of arrogance is earning a paycheck by wagging a finger at those whose profession you’re leeching off of. Olney’s position on this issue in general, and on Giambi in particular, is nauseating, reprehensible, and the height of hypocrisy.

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And while I’m ranting about asshole baseball writers from ESPN, I’d like to take a moment to destroy this little “gem.” This article fails in the following ways:

1. By writing that “the departures of coaches like [Mel] Stottlemyre, Willie Randolph and Don Zimmer, he is left with a cast of failed managers (Tony Pena, Larry Bowa) and future failed managers (Don Mattingly) as his assistants” Pearlman incorrectly assigns blame to the perceived failures of the current coaching staff. Anyone who truly knows the Yankees knows that Mel Stottlemyre was a far greater beneficiary for having had the chance to work with David Wells, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and David Cone than any of those pitchers were for having worked with Stottlemyre.

Does Pearlman forget that Zimmer wasn’t exactly a great manager in his day? In 14 seasons, Zimmer compiled a career .508 wining percentage (885-858), achieved only one first place finish (with the 1989 Cubs) and was the manager of the Red Sox during the famous Boston Massacre of 1978 when the Yankees overcame a 14 game deficit from July 18-September 10. Hardly the picture of excellence, if you ask me.

Furthermore, I fail to see the relevance in how Tony Pena’s and Larry Bowa’s failures as managers have any bearing on the 2006-2007 Yankees. Seriously, when was the last time you heard of a team’s championship pedigree being determined by the work of the first and third base coaches, respectively? Regardless, is this even serious baseball scholarship? And, truth be told, Larry Bowa’s regarded as one of the best third base coaches in the game...

2. Pearlman, like too many others who write about baseball, overrate (and overuse) terms like passion and chemistry. Case in point, “[w]hen you nurture and develop the Jeters...those men will live and die for those pinstripes. On the other hand, when you shell out fat wads of cash for Alex Rodriguez...and Jason Giambi, are you buying skill and passion, or just skill?” This sentiment equates players acquired via free agency or trade with apathy and homegrown players with grit and resolve. Have David Cone and Roger Clemens (regarded as two of the game’s preeminent hired guns) ever been accused of a lack of passion? Did Pearlman bother to check Pete Rose’s pulse when he was imported to the 1980 Phillies?

Grit vs. apathy is one of those stupid, facile arguments that people try to make when a losing team is composed of a greater proportion of free agents or non-homegrown players. To think that Alex Rodriguez or Jason Giambi care less about winning than Derek Jeter is simple-minded at best and offensive at worst. What about A-Rod would give off the aura of apathy? Further, to quote Corrado “Junior” Soprano, the 2006 Mets came within a c*nt-hair of the World Series and they only had three homegrown players on their roster (Jose Reyes, David Wright, Aaron Heilman). Did anyone question the grittiness of the 2006 Mets, who were the best team in the NL last year? Did anyone ever bring up the makeup and origins of their roster?

The entire premise of Pearlman’s article is that Torre’s laid-back ways are no longer appropriate for a team made up of listless players who require a firm hand to find sufficient motivation. He cites the Mets as a shining example of a team that “scrap[s] and claw[s]...for every run” and as a team that has “immense heart” filled with players who “shave their heads in a sign of team unity.” The Mets have third-highest payroll in baseball, but, again, it comes down to chemistry and grit. Did Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Moises Alou, and Paul Lo Duca enjoy all those times they played together in the Mets farm system? Anyone else see the irony in such a ridiculous suggestion?

Of course, Pearlman’s solution is for the Yanks to dump Joe Torre and replace him with former Mets manager Bobby Valentine. Never mind that Bobby Valentine was run out of town by the entire city of New York (including the few Mets fans that cared about baseball back in 2002). Never mind that the Mets had endured so much of Valentine’s showboating and self-aggrandizing that they replaced him with Art Howe, perhaps the blandest, most benign persona in all of baseball.

If Bobby Valentine – whose baseball knowledge is indeed exceptional – were in such hot demand as a manager, then why was he essentially banished to the Japanese league? Were there not plenty of managerial openings over the past five years? How come Bobby V. hasn’t been considered for any of them? And why would Bobby V. be a good fit for the Yanks? Don’t they get enough negative press? Valentine is a walking, talking distraction – someone who pretty much taught Ozzie Guillen everything he knows.

Pearlman and I agree that Torre should be fired. Quite honestly, Torre should’ve been fired after the 2003 World Series. But the reasons (and the issue of his replacement) reflect why Jeff Pearlman is, like so many others, an unsophisticated ass who happens to write about baseball for a living. I fail to understand how the national pastime can continue to survive when the people charged with informing the general public know nothing of which they write.

Next Five Up?

Keep an eye on these five minor leaguers. They are PnR's current picks for the next five to make an impact with their big clubs:

1. Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins

Baker figures to be the first called up to replace Ponson. While Slowey has been slightly more dominant at Rochester, the Twins seem to be convinced Baker should get the first shot.

Current Stats:

3-2, 3.16, 0.89, .219, 42.2 IP, 41 SO, 4 BB

2. Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins

With Ramon Ortiz struggling as well, Slowey should follow quickly behind Baker. While neither he nor Baker has better "stuff" than Garza, both have had a better start at Rochester and both have more minor league experience. Slowey should follow quickly behind Baker.

Current Stats:
4-2, 1.46, 0.69, .176, 49.1 IP, 44 SO, 3 BB

3. Ryan Braun, 3b, Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers insist there is no timetable for promoting Braun, but his numbers are impossible to ignore. The problem facing Braun is the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" attitude of the organization right now -- and who can blame them? My gut tells me it will take very little to scare the Brewers into getting his bat into the lineup (DHing in interleague would be the perfect opportunity).

Current Stats:

.358, .426, .716, 1.142, 8 HR, 95 AB, 9 SO, 11 BB

4. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

With Lincecum up with the Giants, there's an argument to made for Gallardo as the most dominant starter in the minors. His stuff as been downright filthy, and he has shown no signs of slowing anytime soon. Like Braun, Gallardo may find it tough to break in with the Brewers while the club is rolling. Essentially, he is an injury or a small Brew Crew losing streak away from making his debut. Once he's up, he's there to stay.

Current Stats:

5-1, 2.22, 0.88, .161, 48.2 IP, 66 SO, 16 BB

5. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Votto started off slowly, but has raked as of late. With the Reds reeling and Josh Hamilton performing reasonably well, they may look to deal some talent for pitching. That would open the door for Votto, who is the second highest prospect in the system, behind Homer Bailey.

Current Stats:
.271, .399, .421, .820, 4 HR, 133 AB, 34 SO, 27 BB

Lincy Breaks Through

Tim Lincecum had a breakout performance last night, fanning 10 over 7 innings of two-bit ball. It's apropos that this showing came against the pitcher to whom he is most often compared -- Roy Oswalt. Oswalt had a nice evening as well, throwing 5 2/3 innings of no hit ball and striking out 6 before leaving the game with a 1-0 lead after 7. As an aside, the Giants eventually won in the 12th on an RBI infield hit off of the 1st base bag.

If you have MLB Gamecast, it's worth your time to go back and watch last night's game if you missed it. It was truly a sight to see.

NL Power Rankings

While MJ is handling the AL, I have the pleasure of examining the NL squads. Here is PnR's first week of NL Power Rankings:

NL Power Rankings (May 16, 2007)

Team Name/Record/This Week/Last Week/Comments

Mets/26-14/1/-/Weekend sweep of the Brewers solidified the Mets as the front-runner one quarter through the season. Perez and Maine remain huge question marks the rest of the way, but the offense should churn out 5-7 runs a night.

Braves/25-16/2/-/Weathered Wickman's injury admirably, and fortunately Smoltz looks like he will be back shortly. It's time for the other Jones to lead the offense for a while.

Brewers/26-15/3/-/Rough weekend in New York. Minny skid means we could see both Gallardo and Braun sooner rather than later.

Dodgers/25-16/4/-/Solid at the plate; solid on the mound. Ranked 4th or higher in the NL for BA, OBP, SB, ERA, BAA, OPS Against, SV, and QS. Oh, and 5th in WHIP.

Padres/22-19/5/-/Peavy making a case for best pitcher in the NL. Nice to see a strong start after last seasons irregularities.

Astros/20-19/6/-/Oswalt and Lincy square off tonight. Can anyone slow down Hunter Pence?

Diamondbacks/22-20/7/-/Chris B. Young (a PnR favorite) looks like he's heating up. If only Stephen Drew could do the same...

Giants/19-20/8/-/Cain, Zito, Lowry, Lincy and Morris -- in five weeks we may find this is the best rotation in baseball. Clear, Cream, Pills, Shakes or Veggies -- whatever you're thoughts on the matter, here's hoping in five years we can all look back and recognize how incredibly good Bonds truly is.

Phillies/20-21/9/-/Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are each thriving in their new role -- ace and closer, respectively. Want to know something scary? Howard's power numbers are actually ahead of where they were last year at this time.

Cubs/18-21/10/-/Made a nice run, but took a huge step back today allowing 5 in the bottom of the ninth. If Hill, Marquis and Lilly don't keep up their unexpected dominance, we could see the Cubies free-falling down the Ranks.

Marlins/18-23/11/-/We all knew there would be some regression this year, but the Fish have to be disappointed with this start. On the bright side, Cabrera is still raking.

Pirates/18-22/12/-/Sluggish offense makes it unlikely the Pirates will compete in a weak NL Central. Ranked 12th or lower in the NL in BA, R, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Rockies/17-24/13/-/Tulowitzki making a case for staying in the two slot -- Dirtbag finally starting to catch his bat up with his defense. Hirsch has been a nice surprise, but expect a bumpy ride throughout the season.

Reds/16-25/14/-/Hamilton has been fun; the pitching staff has not. With Homer Bailey struggling with his command in Louisville, maybe Reds fans should start counting down the days until the Votto era instead.

Cardinals/16-22/15/-/So this is what an unimproved, aging World Series champ looks like, huh?

Nationals/15-26/16/-/I wish there was something nice to write...I'm excited for the new stadium?

NL MVP: Jose Reyes, Mets (.337/.411/.533, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 35 R, 7 3B, 23 SB)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (5-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .194 BAA)
NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.354/.391/.662, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 10 of 23 hits have gone for extra bases)

AL Power Rankings

Stotle’s added a new feature which he’s asked me to help out with. Going forward, I will publish a weekly power ranking for all 14 AL teams, including my year-to-date favorites for the AL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year awards. Without further ado, here are the power rankings for the week ended May 16, 2007.

AL Power Rankings (May 16, 2007)

Team Name/Record/This Week/Last Week/Comments

Red Sox/26-12/1/-/Steamrolling everyone in their sight with the best overall pitching in the AL (T1 BAA, 2nd in WHIP, 4th in QS).

Tigers/24-14/2/-/Pitching not as good as in ‘06, but offense is better with early 2007 MVP candidate Magglio raking.

Indians/22-14/3/-/CC Sabathia’s on fire and the team is hot, even though Sizemore and Hafner aren’t.

A’s/20-18/4/-/Dan Haren is now in the conversation for league’s best pitcher and A’s have given up fewest runs in the bigs.

Angels/22-18/5/-/Winning with smoke and mirrors. The young kids are helping…Ervin Santana isn’t.

Yankees/17-19/6/-/Can’t catch a break, but still leading the AL in RS and have one of the best RS-RA differentials in the league.

Twins/18-20/7/-/Haven’t played their best ball; seriously, did anyone think Carlos Silva would have a lower ERA than Johan?

White Sox/18-16/8/-/The offense has aged considerably since 2006: Konerko and Dye are both hitting .200 for the year.

Orioles/18-22/9/-/Chris Ray has blown saves in spectacular fashion but Bedard and Cabrera are definitely coming around in ‘07.

Mariners/18-16/10/-/More smoke and mirrors. How does this team score any runs?

Blue Jays/17-22/11/-/Troy Glaus and Jeremy Accardo are the only bright spots in a disappointing season thus far.

Devil Rays/16-22/12/-/BJ Upton’s looking like he wants the RoY award and James Shields is pitching like Kazmir was supposed to.

Rangers/15-24/13/-/No one expected the pitching to be good, but the offense hasn’t been anything to write home about either.

Royals/13-27/14/-/At least Gil Meche has been worth the money…

AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers (.343/.431/.657, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 19 2B)
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, Red Sox (7-0, 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.34 K/9)
AL RoY: BJ Upton, Devil Rays (.331/.401/.583, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB)

Clemens is What He Is

Scoop Jackson posted an article on ESPN.com today maligning (i) Roger Clemens as the most selfish player in sports and (ii) the media for not writing about it. Mr. Jackson isn't completely in the wrong here, but I think he's missing the point. Clemens is not sitting out on an existing contract. He is not attempting to renegotiate an existing agreement. He is not even prolonging negotiations.

Say what you will about what has become the Annual Clemens Sweepstakes, the facts are as follows:

1. Roger Clemens has made the decision that he does not want to play a full season of baseball anymore;

2. Roger Clemens remains, inning-for-inning, one of the best pitchers in baseball, regardless of age or games started per season;

3. Houston, Boston and New York have known since October 2006 that they may or may not end up Clemens come May 2007.

The reason the media isn't up in arms about these facts is there is no story to write. There is nothing unfair about the way Clemenstock '07 played out. All three teams knew they had a shot, and each team knew there were compelling draws in each of the other two cities. All three teams had a better opportunity to prepare for losing Clemens than the A's, Mariners and Cardinals had to prepare for losing Harden, King Felix and Carpenter, respectively.

Has Clemens become the "most selfish" player in baseball (and maybe professional sports)? Of course not. Is it selfish to set the terms for your performance in any workplace? Is it different than me going into the boss's office and saying (?):

"I want to spend more time with my family. I still enjoy my work, but at this stage in my life I'd like to only work two days a week. If you are still interested in employing me, we can talk. If not, I am happy to retire."

The answer is no. If the company views me as one of its best workers, and is willing to make this accommodation, why would I feel bad for those who continue to work a full schedule? The marketplace will decide the employees worth. For Clemens, he is still valuable enough (at least to three teams) that the potential of four months of play is enough to justify the salary and the risk that he heads elsewhere.

The reason the media is not calling out Houston, New York, Boston and Clemens, is there is no story here. Everyone seems to understand that Clemens has set his terms and three teams were willing to meet those terms. Everyone, that is, except for Scoop Jackson.

Hello World

To lead off, I wanted to thank Stotle for his invitation to have me as a contributor to this site. I’m a passionate baseball fan and relish any opportunity to talk about the game. Stotle follows college and the minors a lot more closely than I do but I consider myself a student of the game and hope to provide my take on major league issues from time to time.

In the interests of full disclosure, I’m an unabashed Yankee fan (and requisite Red Sox hater) and generally despise small-market teams that whine about everything. Therefore, most of my observations come from the Yankees/“haves” point of view and will probably irritate the legion of Yankee-hating/“have-nots” loyalists out there. If nothing else, it’ll make for good reading and lots of fun hate-mail for me.

Look for at least monthly reports from me with the possibility for more frequent postings as time permits.

-MJ

After One Month...

So, it's been a little more difficult than I expected to post on here with work and travels over the last month. I am going to try again for a weekly update on minor leaguers with some MLB and College articles sprinkled in periodically.

A couple brief thoughts off the cuff:

1. The guy right here is REALLY good
While I have no written proof that I pegged Gallardo as one of my favorite prospects for this year, my Lawyer's League fantasy team targeted and landed both Gallardo and Garza during our draft back in mid-March. The only reason he (and Lincy, for that matter)was left off of our Top 15 list is there was no reason to think he'd force the issue so quickly. Most would agree Gallardo was one of the top strikeout pitchers in the minors, but the Brewer's pitching staff did not look like it was going to provide any opportunity for Yovani to cut his teeth. Mix in the fact that Villanueva looked lights out last year, and would likely get the first shot at any opening in the rotation, and I figured Gallardo was probably a long shot to see any significant time before the second half of the season (although I admittedly made the loony prediction that Gallardo would be up in May in an earlier post). Now that Villanueva is thriving in the bullpen (and so far as we know, not being considered for starting duties), a late-May/early-June call-up does not seem nearly as crazy. I for one hope to see him up sooner, rather than later. Heaven knows my Fantasy Team could use him, even if the Brewers don't quite yet.

2. Braun should be up for interleague games.
Sticking with the Brewers, it would make a lot of sense to bring Braun up for the nine upcoming interleague games in the AL. Stick him in the DH spot and see if his bat is indeed worth the sacrifice on defense. As my pick to win the central, I'd greatly appreciate it if the Brewers did not wait for a prolonged losing streak to start thinking about these changes (see Gallardo above).

3. Garza is sliding.
While I do not concede that I was off on my projections for Garza, I do recognize that he has fallen behind Slowey and Perkins as next in line to replace in inevitable Ponson-trainwreck. His strikeout totals remain impressive, but his command is still off. I'd like to see a couple of weeks worth of dominating starts before I start campaigning for a promotion to the bullpen. Last year Garza seemed to tire by the end of the season, and it may not be a bad idea to let him finish one more full season at AAA before pushing him back into ML service. That said, if the Twins need the arms, Garza has the mental make-up to get over any setbacks he may face with another slightly premature call-up.

4. Shealy and Pence vs. Young and Gordon
Anyone want to take the bet that Shealy and Pence will combine for better numbers than Young and Gordon (the two front runners for AL Rookie of the Year one short month ago)?

I hope to convince a buddy of mine to post some thoughts up here from time to time. Either way, I will be posting both of our predictions for each team, division winners, pennant winners, World Series champ, MVPs, CYs, and ROYs. Looking forward to a nice steak, MJ...

The "Next 25": Abridged

Before starting the regular season writings, the "Next 25" which was never released in full form (due to complications at work and a crazy weekend in South Beach):

Top 10:
Andrew Miller, SP, Det -- still lacks command and is likely at least half of a season away
Homer Bailey, SP, Cin -- will need a month or two in Louisville to refine command of offspeed stuff
Philip Hughes, SP, NYY -- injuries may mean a call in May; Hughes is better off with a call in July
Tim Lincecum, SP, SF -- the Giants wanted a full season of Lincy as a starter; a thin bullpen and strong start may make him this years '06 Papelbon
Ryan Braun, 3B, Mil -- Brick hands have cost Braun a spot on the opening day roster, and the Brewers a 20 HR bat
Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA -- Back to AAA to learn 3b; next stop LAA in June/July
Evan Longoria, 3B/SS, TB -- September 1 = MLB debut; most polished hitter in minors
Hunter Pence, OF, Hou -- Another victim of Craig Biggio's pursuit of 3000; just give him CF and let Burke take over 2b for good; Pence will be a legit HR/BA threat for years to come
Adam Miller, SP, Cle -- the quicker he gets into the rotation, the quicker Cleveland can start preparing for the ALCS; expect a May call-up
Adam Lind, OF, Tor -- ready to hit right now; only a Frank Thomas injury away from doing it in Toronto

Next 10:
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil -- Great strikeout numbers; great breakout potential; see you in May
Billy Butler, OF/DH, KC -- ready to rake; keep him away from a glove; just a Sweeney injury away
Adam Jones, OF, Sea -- great tools; might not get the call until '08, but I think he sees Safeco sooner rather than later
Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM -- Already in the rotation, we'll see how he fares
Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD -- Dodgers inexplicably continue to deny LaRoche a place on the big team; his numbers at AAA will force the issue before June
Joey Votto, 1B, Cin -- pure hitter, should be up by mid-season to stay
Josh Fields, 3B, CHW -- Solid tools all around; OF ability makes ML time more likely
James Loney, 1B, LAD -- Would like to see more power, but you can do worse than a Mark Grace clone
John Danks, SP, CHW -- Atleast a year away from being a solid contributor; '07 may be a struggle, but '08 will make the South Side exclaim "McCarthy who?!"
Jeff Neiman, SP, TB -- finally a young pitcher ready to contribute; look for an August call

Last 5:
Travis Buck, OF, Oak -- should hit if given the opportunity; look for a taste in '07 and a strong '08 campaign
Ryan Sweeney, OF, CHW -- some of the shine is off, but we'll have to wait and see what he can do with a full time job (it would help if he could earn one)
Daric Barton, 1B, Oak -- we'll see what the A's decide; should see 20-30 games at some point this year
Erick Aybar, SS, LAA -- ready to play, and a prime candidate for a trade by July; could see time in center if Matthews misses time
Kevin Slowey, SP, Min -- three words: Ponson, Ortiz, Silva; he'll be up with Garza by the end of May

Five More to Watch:
Glen Perkins, SP, Min -- see Slowey (no idea what the Twins are thinking)
Felix Pie, OF, CHC -- will be a tough '07, but Pie has the tools to be a star by '09; he should earn some time by the end of August
Micah Owings, SP, Ari -- '08 is the scheduled arrival, but Owings could force the issue as early as July
Humberto Sanchez, NYY -- if he can stay healthy, he could be a great arm out of the pen come August
Bryce Cox, RP, Bos -- less likely to make the jump now that Paps is back in the pen; still, Cox is only a JP injury away from an August call

Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (3 of 3)

There's not much fantasy buzz around these last five, but their respective organizations are plenty excited to see them take the field with the Big Clubs this summer. Each should make the major league roster this April.

11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

In 2005, Tulowitzki became the second of three Long Beach State shortstops selected as first round picks this decade (Bobby Crosby - 2001; Evan Longoria - 2006). Defensively, Tulowitzki doesn't take great lines to the ball, often giving runners an extra step -- his superior arm-strength, however, has more than made up for this shortcoming, thus far. At the plate, TT can spray line drives to all fields, and possesses major-league power to boot. The Rockies shortstop of the future got his first taste of The Bigs last fall, skipping Triple-A and finishing the season as the starting 6. While struggling, and appearing overmatched at times last year, this year should prove less daunting. Expect some fun defensive highlights and a solid batting line, with much larger numbers looming in the near future.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .278-13-56-9

Fantasy Impact:
Like most prospects, Tulowitzki is a much better option for keeper leagues. While his numbers this year won't make him a top fantasy option yet, he is serviceable as a MI. It would be nice to see a little more speed, but the .300+/18+ you could get next year and the year after, it's a fair trade-off. Pick him up in the later rounds of keeper drafts.

12. Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco Giants

Although questions surround Sanchez's ability to shoulder a full season workload as a starter -- he has never pitched over 126 innings in a season -- his 301 Ks in 229 IP, as well as .223 BAA throughout his minor league career is impossible to ignore. Sanchez closed out the '06 season in the Giants rotation, but was more effective in his relief appearances. San Francisco hopes March will be good to Jonathan, and he can crack the rotation as the number 5 starter. However, his fastball/changeup combo could make him an effective reliever right now, and a darkhorse candidate for the closing job.

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 8-4.15-1.45-145

Fantasy Impact:
Sanchez just misses being a solid sleeper. While it's great to see potential when you are GM of a major league club, fantasy GMs need more tangeable attributes in their players. Mark Sanchez as a player to watch. He should be a valuable spot starter if he can crack the rotation. If he's stuck in the pen, there are better SO/ERA/WHIP options out there.

13. Jason Hirsh, SP, Colorado Rockies

After accumulating pitcher of the year honors in both Double-A (Texas League, 2005) and Triple-A (Pacific Coast League, 2006), Hirsh struggled through his major league debut -- nine starts in '06 for the Astros. While the move to Colorado may not bode well for the 6-8 righty, no one questions his talent. Hirsh boasts low-90's fastball, preferring the 4-seam with slightly more velocity. His slider has progressed throughout his professional career, as has his ability to change speeds and set up hitters. Hirsh should open this year towards the end of the rotation. While this could be a rocky first season in Colorado -- please disregard the word choice -- Hirsh should eventually develop into a solid number three starter; no more, no less.

Projected Stats: 10-4.65-1.55-135

Fantasy Impact:
Hirsh would have been an intriguing sleeper had he stayed put in Houston. Keep an eye on him, and look to utilize him in favorable match-ups once he has his feet under him. Long term prospects are solidly average; there are better keeper options out there.


14. Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks

Montero has drastically improved his defense over the last season and a half, and now can pose as a serviceable major league catcher. This is a big deal, because the Diamondbacks can't wait to get his bat in their youthful lineup. Montero has a quick swing allowing him to use the whole field. He also has enough power to produce consistent 15+ HR seasons. He may split time with Chris Snyder to start the season, but should take over a majority of starts before too long -- provided his defense holds.

Projected Stats: .260-11-52-2

Fantasy Impact:
Montero is an excellent option as a second catcher, especially in keeper leagues. He is capable of developing into a .285-20-85 catcher, but .275-15-70 is probably more realistic. Either way, he will be available at a discount, and could be a valuable addition right away.

15. Alberto Callaspo, 2B/UT, Arizona Diamondbacks

Alberto Callaspo is quite simply one of my favorite young players. He played a variety of positions for the Snakes' Triple-A Tucson team, which was selected Baseball America's Minor League Team of the Year. He has an extensive knowledge of the strike zone, and remarkable hand-eye coordination. Together, this helped make him the most difficult strike-out in all of minor league baseball for the third year in a row -- with just one strikeout per 20.5 plate appearances. Callaspo is a linedrive hitter with little power, and is comfortable at nearly any defensive position. It is not surprising that the Diamondbacks have been hounded with questions as to his availability. He has no clear position at this time, but should open the 2007 as a super-utility player, and could see a fair amount of playing time this year. Depending on how the next two years go, Callaspo could develop into a very good major league middle-infielder, although he could just as easily top out as a solid utility player.

Projected Stats: .260-5-38-0

Fantasy Impact:
Callaspo has no real fantasy value. If he is able to snag a full time spot due to injuries, keep an eye on him to see how he fairs in the role. Unfortunately, the injury will have to come in the infield, as Carlos Gonzalez -- who will likely start the season at Double-A -- is ready to step in for the first fallen outfielder, and has much more offensive upside.

Up Next: Top 25 Prospects likely to get the call sometime in 2007 (1-5)

Just Missed: Ryan Braun, Mil; Andrew Miller, Det; Adam Miller, Cle; Adam Jones, Sea

Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (2 of 3)

After the top 5, the next ten have a lot of potential for movement over the next month or so (including the possibility that a more talented/high-upside prospect will win a spot and bump them from the prestigious PnR Top 15). For now, these rookies should all be considered strong '07 performers with bright futures.

6. Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado Rockies

For the record, Ianetta was slated to enter these rankings at a comfortable 9. Upon further review, however, it turns out there really aren't that many REALLY good catchers, and Ianetta has a very good chance to be just that. While Ianetta is not at the upper echelon with Mauer and Martinez (and does not really project to get there), his refined plate discipline and natural feel for working a count to get to fastballs will eventually translate into a solid average and good home run numbers (think 15-20, but mid-20s is certainly not out of reach). He is a gifted defender that, for some reason, struggled throwing out runners last year. He should congeal behind the plate (he already has a good reputation regarding the handling of a pitching staff) and will be ready to be a major contributor in 2007.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .295-9-53-1

Fantasy Impact:

Ianetta still seems to be under a lot of radars, so you should have a prime opportunity to grab a solid backstop late, while your competition is scrambling to pick up Paul Lo Duca. A better bet in keeper leagues, but should be more than adequate as a second catcher in 2 catcher leagues.

7. Kei Igawa, SP, New York Yankees

Overshadowed by Matsuzaka this offseason, Igawa comes to New York with the chance to test his non-power, power stuff. What does that mean? Igawa racked up large strike out numbers without the typical power-pitcher make-up, relying heavily on a curve/slurve sitting in the high 70's. His fastball can get up to the low 90's, but is more at home in the high 80's. Scouts differ as to how they view his stuff translating to the AL East. He will go after hitters with tenacity, and should be able to post solid numbers in the back of the Yankees rotation. Keep an eye out this spring to see how ML hitters handle his willingness to pitch in and challenge. If he commands the strike zone, he could fair alright this year. If his non-power, power stuff sits too close to the non-power end of the spectrum, it could be a long summer.

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 12-4.30-1.40-158

Fantasy Spin:

Could be worth a late round pick, or a late low bid. Realistically, his win total could fall anywhere between 10 and 16. He is an experienced pitcher, and will not be intimidated by the rake-happy AL East. Let your opponents bid up Daisuke, and Igawa as your four or five starter with a solid value pick.

8. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The five-time Japanese All-Star hit .300 with 188 homeruns over nine seasons with Yakult (averaging 35 big flys a season over the last three years), and batted .389 during last years World Baseball Classic. The power numbers should drop a fair amount as he transitions to the American game, but he is still more than capable of hitting close to 20 homeruns with a solid average. Regardless, what he loses in homeruns he will likely gain in doubles. Most scouts agree his AVG and OBP should remain about where they are (.300 and .389, respectively). Iwamura is a strong defender, nabbing six Japanese Gold Gloves at third, so his defense should be an asset to the young Devil Rays. It remains to be seen what will be done with B.J. Upton, and eventually Evan Longoria. For the immediate future, at least, count on Iwamura being a fixture at 3B and putting up respectable offensive numbers.

Projected Stats: .290-17-66-8

Fantasy Impact:

Iwamura is a viable option at CI, provided he have stocked up on some big bats elsewhere. He should be a help in average, and will contribute in RBI and HR as well. Could improve on power numbers in 2008 after a year of seasoning.

9. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Pedroia led the International League (AAA, Pawtucket) last year with an average of only one strikeout per 18.3 plate appearances. Boasting some of the best hand/eye coordination in all of baseball, Pedroia should put the ball in play consistently, and with a little bit of gap-pop. His defense is solid, posting just 17 errors in 301 games thus far, and at SS to boot. He will be the heir to the starting 2B job for the BoSox this Spring, and could thrive in the role. He will hit towards the bottom of the order, but should get a fair number of RBI opportunities. It would be foolish to try and predict him as the next Freddy Sanchez, but Dustin is more than capable of hitting .300+ as a rookie. The big knock for a MI is that he doesn't possess much speed on the basepaths.

Projected Stats: .292-8-67-3

Fantasy Impact:

Pedroia is a great option for MI. While the above projections may not blow you away, you have to factor in the possibility -- and it is a REAL possibility -- that he hits a good 20 to 30 points higher and reaches double-digit HRs. After facing Ramirez, Drew Ortiz, etc., pitchers will be itching to challenge him with a lot of fastballs, which could translate to some great fantasy production.

10. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres

The "Crushin' Russian" would have landed a little higher on this list had he(1) stayed away from Petco, and (2) not been bothered with injuries the past two seasons (including back problems last year). Kouz finished first, second and fourth in slugging (.656), hitting (.379) and OBP (.437), respectively, in all of minor league baseball in 2006. Despite this showing, the presence of Andy Marte made him expendable, and he was shipped to the Fathers for Josh Barfield. If healthy, Kouzmanoff could excel right away (you may recall he homered in his first two games with the Tribe last fall). He will open the 2007 season as starting 3B for the Pads, and should hit from day one.

Projected Stats: .293-15-69-3

Fantasy Impact:

A frustrating situation where a very large upside is negated by injury fears. He is worth a late pick or cheap bid, especially in keeper leagues. Hope you can land him for cheap and he stays healthy; be very certain you have other options if you're depending on Kouz as a starter for your squad.

Up Next: 11-15

Just Missed: Troy Tulowitzki, Col; Miguel Montero, Ari

Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (1 of 3)

This series of articles examines this year's rookie class, breaking it down into three categories: 1) those who are in line for a big league roster spots on Opening Day; 2) those who are in line for a early or mid-season call-up; and 3) those who are scheduled for a full year in the minors, but may force their way into the majors some time this summer.

Part 1 focuses on fifteen newcomers who are in great shape to start April on their major league clubs. While this article, indeed this site, was not originally intended to be a fantasy advice site, a "fantasy impact" section has been included for each player. Now, the rookies...

1. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

It appears the three years of hype still may not have done justice to Young's talent and upside. The number one overall pick in 2004 cut his teeth at the end of the '06 season, batting .317-3-10-2-.476 (BA-HR-RBI-SB-SLG) through thirty games with the Rays. While polish and talent have never been an issue, questions remain as to whether Young's ego will prove to be a detriment (see bat throwing incident, 2006). For now, I am willing to chalk up Young's rumored attitude problems to youthful naivete and the fact that Tampa has been slow to promote him based on business rather than performance. Look for a strong rookie showing, and a bright, bright future. At 22, Young has a chance to put up big numbers in all categories right away.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .302-22-89-27

Fantasy Impact:

Young should be a solid contributor in all categories. While a 24/1 (SO/BB) ratio at Tampa last year may be some cause for concern, there is simply to much polished talent here not to get excited. Should be a top 30 outfielder with top 20 upside this year and top 10 upside as early as next season.

2. Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals

It's really a toss-up between Young and Gordon at 1 and 2. The KC third baseman is, likewise, a polished hitter ready to make an impact at the major league level. A quick, fluid swing and uncanny ability to but the ball on the fat part of the bat served as the catalyst for Gordon's high average and power to all fields throughout his college career at Nebraska and his lone minor league season at AA Wichita. Gordon is also a threat on the basepaths, swiping 22 of 25 last season. The current plan is to move Mark Teahan to the outfield to make room for Gordon this Spring. Barring a disastrous March, Gordon will start his rookie campaign manning the hot corner for the Royals.

Projected Stats: .304-19-73-18

Fantasy Impact:

Gordon should be considered a safe pick for a UT or CI slot (again, barring a disastrous March). He has displayed good plate discipline, and is considered by most to have a major league bat right now. Draft a little earlier in keeper leagues, and don't be put off by a slow April. Gordon will hit, and could put up David Wright numbers as early as this year.

3. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Like the "other" Young in this rookie class, Chris Young has the tools and will be given the opportunity to be a 25/25 guy this year. Originally drafted by the White Sox, Young came to Arizona via the Vazquez deal and has exceeded all expectations. He is slated to take over in CF this March, and should have a stranglehold on the role by the middle of the month. Young has 30/30 upside, and should be a solid defender. Despite cutting down on his strikeouts, Young still tends to swing and miss a fair amount and could end up a Mike Cameron-like producer.

Projected Stats: .272-23-73-23

Fantasy Impact:

Young is the last of the "safe bets" as far as position players are concerned. He should be considered a solid number 4 outfielder. His average could dip as low as the high .250s/low .260s depending on how much progress he makes this Spring in perfecting Arizona's selective approach at the plate. The upside is high, as he should bat in the middle of a young lineup with lots of talented bats.

4. Matt Garza, SP, Minnesota Twins

Garza's totals last year through his late season call-up were less than stellar (3-6, 5.76, 1.70). So why does he rank at #4? His pure stuff and college/minor league track record are impossible to ignore. Last year's fall-off was more likely than not due to fatigue at the end of his first full season of pro pitching. Garza boasts a four pitch arsenal, with a fast ball that sits in the mid-nineties. Garza is a power arm with solid breaking stuff. His numbers in the minors are filthy (.201 BA against, 243K/211IP, 2.56 ERA), and skewed negatively by a rough transition from Rookie Ball to Low A his first year. Garza will focus on command with his fastball this Spring and projects as a number 2 only because the number 1 spot in the Twins rotation is currently held by the best pitcher on the planet. The former Fresno State Bulldog is primed for a breakout season as the Twins number 4 or 5 starter -- do you really think Sidney Ponson is going to wrestle away a rotation spot from him?

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 13-4.10-1.30-165

Fantasy Impact:

Garza is a great option for a 4 or 5 SP. While his stat line for the Twins in '06 may be cause for concern among prognosticators, it has driven down his price and draft level for fantasy purposes. He should be available late in drafts, and cheap in auctions. Jump aboard the Garza bandwagon right now and ride it to solid WHIP/ERA/SO numbers and double-digit wins this year.

5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox

Daisuke (you will never, ever see "Dice-K" on this site...ever) is the safest bet this year when it comes to starting pitchers. It's difficult to rate Matsuzaka this low on the rookie list and there are many arguments for him as the top newcomer to MLB. For starters, he has six pitches that can rate as plus pitches, and two pitches that rate as plus-plus. He was named MVP in all three of his World Baseball Classic starts, has pitched in two Olympics, and has over eight full seasons of pro experience, despite being just 26 years of age. Most scouts project him as a number 1, with a floor as a number 2. There may be issues, however, with his tendency to work up in the strike zone. Further, like many Japanese pitchers, he uses his flatter 4-seam fastball a great deal more than his 2-seam, which does not bode well in an AL East where every team will have an improved offense. Ultimately, the former Lion (note we have given Seibu some love, rather than the tired Team Japan pictures) should produce a first year full of dominating starts and rough outings in about equal measure. Matsuzaka has already shown himself to be a hard worker and mentally tough, and there is no doubt he will adapt in time. He should struggle less and less over the next 18 months, and assume the role of staff ace by late 2008.

Project Stats: 15-3.91-1.28-170

Fantasy Impact:

Matsuzaka will be a strong fantasy pitcher this year, but will likely be overvalued in most leagues. If he can be had for cheap, or at a reasonable round, you should jump on him. Keep in mind he will be facing a tough AL East, and will need to focus on working down in the zone more through the Spring. He is almost the polar opposite of Garza, who provides great upside at a likely undervalued price. Watch his performances in March and do your best not to the let the hype inflate your ranking. The best strategy may be to let someone else grab him, and wait for some bad outings to launch trade talks.

Just Missed:

None -- These are the clear Top 5