NL Power Rankings (July 2, 20007)

Team/Record/This Week (Last Week) - Comments

Padres/46-34/1 (2) - Major League best 271 runs allowed (3.01 ERA). Peavy/Young an interesting juxtaposition against soft-tossing control specialists Maddux and Germano. The bullpen is pretty nasty, too. Bradley and Barrett might be enough to make the Padres the team to beat in the NL through the 2nd half (raise your hand if you ever thought you'd see that sentence in print anywhere?)

Dodgers/46-36/2 (3) - After dropping 2 of 3 to the Padres, the Dodgers will finish the first half with four against the Fish and three against the Braves. Martin and Loney continue to impress, and the starting rotation isn't far behind San Diego. Should be a great race from here on out.

Brewers/47-34/3 (6) - Last year, Braun and Gallardo were showcased in the futures game (pictured right). It's not a stretch to think they could find their way back to the All-Star festivities in the Bronx. Can't say I agree with dropping Gallardo to the pen in favor of Capuano, but at least Milwuakee has stayed away from the silly "back to Nashville" talk.

Mets/46-34/4 (1) - David Wright has a legitimate shot at 30-30 this year (currently 14-17). Staff continues to impress, despite pre-season second-guessers (PnR certainly included) -- 2nd in QS (49), 2nd in ERA (3.65), 1st in BAA (.234), 3rd in OPSA (.696) and 2nd in WHIP (1.25).

Diamondbacks/46-37/5 (4) - Run differential not too impressive (-17), nor is losing back-to-back series against the Giants and Dodgers. Snakes will need a lot more offense if they want to keep pace with the Dodgers and Padres (currently ranked 12th in NL in OBP, 14th in BA and 12th in runs).

Braves/43-39/6 (5) - Braves missed a prime opportunity to take charge in the East in June. With the final two first half series on the road against the Dodgers and Padres -- and the Mets facing Colorado and Houston -- Atlanta could be looking at 6-8 game deficit going into the 2nd half. Will Soriano be closing by the end of July?

Phillies/42-40/7 (7) - Nothing worse than being a buyer in July with nothing to offer. Hopefully Myers is effective in his return, but it's going to take more to stay with the Mets (as evidenced by this weekend's near sweep). On the bright side, Utley is OPSing an impressive .985 and Howard has a healthy second half to look forward to. No matter what the voters say, Rollins is having an All-Star calibre season.

Cubs/40-40/8 (13) - Don't fret, Carlos, Barrett is gone and you're throwing like yourself again. Odds still in favor of Barrett getting the last laugh, as the Cubbies are probably not built to stay with Milwuakee and San Diego should be a virtual lock for the post-season. Good opportunity to make a run with four against the Nats and three against the Bucs going into the break.

Rockies/39-43/9 (8) - Rough stretch for the Rox, who have dropped nine of their last ten. There has been cause for excitement in the first half, but stretches like these will likely continue until the team gets a little more experience under their belt. Solid offense (top half of the NL in most offensive categories) and iffy pitching (bottom half of the NL in most pitching categories) par for the Colorado Course.

Marlins/38-44/10 (9) - I was expecting more from one of last-year's more entertaining teams. Rough week ahead in San Diego and LA; 2nd half reprieve with first three series against DC, StL, and Cincy. Strong group of power arms waiting in the wings (and current crop of youngsters lead by Cabrera, Ramirez, Willingham, etc.) should translate into another playoff run in the next three years.

Pirates/35-46/11 (11) - Freddy Sanchez is a curious choice for the All-Star team, no? Especially with Gorzy turning in such an impressive first half (not to mention leaving off Sanchez would have made room in the IF for Ramirez/Rollins). Young pitching still fun to watch, but at some point you have to draft and sign some big bats.

Cardinals/36-42/12 (12) - 15th in ERA (4.89) and 14th in QS, watching Haren in the All-Star game will be particularly tough for Cards fans. Toss in a bottom-third ranking in OBP, SLG and runs scored, and you have the perfect recipe for not defending a World Series title.

Astros/35-47/13 (15) - Congrats to Biggio on #3,000 (as well as 1-2,999). Not sure he did the Astros any favors by sticking around to pursue this milestone (his .293 OBP/ .393 SLG has been far from impressive), but I guess he's earned the right...hasn't he? Now, will some one PLEASE let Burke get some regular time at 2b?!

Giants/35-45/14 (10) - How pretty would Cain, Baker, Liriano, Lowry and Lincecum (shame on those of you who were starting to doubt Timmay!) look for the next four or so years? How about with Nathan in the bullpen? Giants should be big sellers this month, at least in part to prep for a run at Arod in the offseason.

Nationals/33-48/15 (14) - While they're a far cry from the worst team in baseball history -- which some predicted they would be -- the Nationals still have a ways to go before they can be called a decent squad. One All-Star "snub" you won't read about is Dmitri Young (yes, partially because it's not that big of a snub). Still, it's nice to see the Meat Hook put up a solid first half after such an ugly end to 2006.

Reds/30-49/16 (16) - Homer Bailey has been dreadful, and I fully expect him to find his way back to Louisville soon. Cincy will try to peddle Dunn and Griffey, but there isn't really a huge market for expensive veterans now-a-days. There is no joy in Redsville; nor is there reason for optimism.

NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers (.281/.371/.614, 27 HR, 66 RBI, 20 2B)
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (9-2, 2.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .214 BAA, 119 K/31 BB/ 112 IP)

NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.340/.367/.571, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 7 SB)

Road to Omaha (Parts 3 and 4 of 4)

Many apologies, but problems at the office meant no time to finish the last two segments of the first Road to Omaha Series. As a recap, PnR's first 4 picks for Super Regionals were Texas/Oral Roberts and Virginia/Vanderbilt. The first 2 picks for Omaha were Texas and Vandy.

Now that we're caught up, here are the last 12 and 6 Super Regional and World Series picks, respectively:
Regional/Regional - Regional Winner/Regional Winner - Super Regional Winner


1. San Diego/Long Beach - San Diego/Long Beach State - San Diego
Comments: Brian Matusz (10-3, 2.73) ranks second in the nation with 156 strikeouts. He and Josh Romanski make up the best 1-2 punch in the Region. LB State is not the most talented team on paper, but battled through a brutal schedule to host a Regional. The battle-tested squad will have enough to escape a Regional that contains a slightly down Pepperdine and frightfully inconsistent UCLA, but not to get past the stacked Toreros.

Don't Forget About: UCLA and Pepperdine, who each are probably more talented than LBS on paper, and certainly capable of knocking off the Dirt Bags. Give the slight nod to UCLA and a hot/cold tandem in Tim Murphy and Gavin Brooks.

2. Chapel Hill/Columbia - UNC/South Carolina - UNC
Comments: The days of South Carolina pounding UNC out of the Super Regionals are far gone. The Tar Heels are in great shape to make another run in Omaha, backed by Friday/Saturday tandem of Alex White and Luke Putkonen and a stable of solid arms in the pen. The Gamecocks have a potent offense (2nd in nation in HRs), but have been inconsistent on the mound. Give the Super Regional nod to the better staff.

Don't Forget About: Charlotte. If the offense pulls its weight (and Adam Mills takes care of the Brackman-less Wolfpack on Friday), Spencer Steedley and Zach Rosenbaum could give South Carolina all it can handle on Saturday and Sunday.

3. Tempe/Oxford - Arizona State/Mississippi - Arizona State
Comments: Ole Miss should not have trouble with its Regional, lining up against three teams with serious question marks (So. Miss - health of Trey Sutton, 1b/Troy and Sam Houston St. - starting pitching). ASUs offense lead the nation in scoring (9.6 runs/game), but might lack the pitching depth required for the 8-team double elimination format of the World Series. Fortunately for the Sun Devils, the Regional is only a 4-team tournament, and the Supers are just a best of 3.

Don't Forget About: UC Riverside. Baseball America describes Riverside as the "deepest collection of quality pitching on the West Coast." They'll certainly be tested in Tempe. If the Highlanders can steal one on Saturday or Sunday, their depth may be the difference on Monday's playoff.

4. Houston/College Station - Rice/Texas A&M - Rice
Comments: Rice began the season as the number one team in the nation, and are poised to make amends for last years meltdown against Oregon State in Omaha. While Baylor, TCU and Prarie View A&M are each strong squads, Rice is the most complete team and a heavy favorite. Texas A&M will look to play an up-tempo style offensively -- stealing, bunting and hitting-and-running. Aggies could make the Supers fun, but Rice's blend of power arms and power bats should take care of business in two.

Don't Forget About: Le Moyne. The Dolphins pulled the biggest upset of the 2006 tournament last year, knocking off #1 Nebraska. Bobby Blevins and Eric Beaulac will look to provide a 1-2 punch on the mound; SS Andy Parrino will need to come up big for the offense.


5. Fayetteville/Columbia - Oklahoma State/Louisville - Louisville
Comments: Oklahoma State has been a bit of a disappointment this season. Still, the offense is one of the most talented in all of college baseball, and more than capable of slugging the Cowboys into the Supers. Louisville ranks 4th in the nation with a 2.89 team ERA. The Cardinals are my pick to be this year's surprise team in Omaha, relying on a talented and deep pitching staff to get them through to (and win a couple in) the World Series.

Don't Forget About: Arkansas and Missouri. Both #1 seeds are more than capable of winning their respective Regionals. Arkansas's biggest question question is pitching depth. If they are forced to a Monday game, they may have trouble keeping the opposition offense under 7 runs, regardless of who that opponent is. Missouri has an unproven, sophomore staff and benefited from a slightly down Big 12. Still, the Tigers have shown a knack for pulling out the close ones (8-0 in one run games), and shouldn't be counted out.

6. Tallahassee/Myrtle Beach - Florida State/Clemson - Florida State
Comments: FSU will throw Bryan Henry (14-1, 2.54), a veteran staff and a .355 team BA (best in the nation) at Miss St, Stetson and Bethune-Cookman. The Seminoles will be heavy favorites to be a three and done Regional winner. Clemson drew a great bracket, matching up one of the best staffs in the nation with a pitcher-friendly field at Coastal Carolina. Clemson was the only team to beat the Seminoles in a series during the regular season, and Saturday starter David Kopp dominated FSU in the ACC tourney, allowing 0 ER over 9 IP. It will be tough for the Tigers to get the best of the 'Noles for a third time this season.

Don't Forget About: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers flat out mash, boasting four players with 9 or more homeruns. The pitching is solid, with Friday starter Bobby Gagg (11-2, 2.75) leading the charge. Given the stadium, it may be tough for an offense that relies on the long ball to get past the pitching of Clemson. If they do, however, we could see some serious fireworks in an FSU/Coastal series.

Who gets to pile-up this year?

Summary:
Projected Regional Winners - Texas, Oral Roberts, Vandy, UVA, San Diego, Long Beach St, UNC, South Carolina, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Rice, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St, Louisville, FSU and Clemson

Projected World Series - Rice, Vandy, UNC, Texas, San Diego, Arizona State, Florida State and Louisville

Projected Champion - Rice

NL Power Rankings (June 1, 2007)

Team Name/Record/This Week/Last Week - Comments

Mets/34-18/1/1 - Solid weak for the Mets, who finished 5-1 against the Marlins and Giants. Delgado is heating up, which will be key depending on how the Beltran injury shakes out. Not sure I'd part with prospects for Willis -- might as well ride the pitching as far as they can. The bats will keep them in most ballgames.

Padres/31-22/2/3 - Kouz continuing to look more and more like a MLB third-baseman. The staff is firing on all cylinders, ranked 1st in the NL in ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.15), 2nd in BAA (.233) and QS (32). I'd hate to be up against Peavy, Young. Maddux and Germano come October.

Dodgers/31-22/3/4 - 4-2 on the week with series wins against the Brewers and the (cough) Nats. Weekend against the Bucs before a showdown with the Padres. Loney is up; let's see if he has the stick to stay.

Diamondbacks/32-23/4/6 - A perfect week for the D-backs (6-0), extending their win streak to 7. Unless the Giants deal for one more big bat, this could be a three team race by July. Who am I kidding? It's a three team race no matter what. Youngsters will still be prone to slumps, though (see Stephen Drew).

Braves/31-23/5/2 - A sweep at the hands of the Phillies was not the start to the week Atlanta was looking for. After taking 2 of 3 from the struggling Brewers, the Braves get three more chances to get their footing against the toothless Cubbies.

Brewers/30-24/6/5 - Brew Crew continues to slump. Braun has already been called up, and (not to sound like a broken record, but...) Gallardo should follow soon. 2-5 last week was ugly, but inexplicably Milwaukee still holds a 6.5 game lead against the 2nd place Pirates (no that is not a typo).

Phillies/26-27/7/9 - Only a .500 week, but a sweep of the Braves has to count for something, right? Looks like Alfonseca will be the go-to-guy in the 9th for now...Look for some exciting endings!

Rockies/25-29/8/12 - The pitching is still questionable, but you have to love the way these kids have started to swing the bat. Any baseball fan who doesn't know Tulowitzki by now will by the end of the season. There simply is nothing this kid can't do defensively, and his bat could eventually yield .300-25-100 seasons.

Marlins/26-28/9/8 - The Fish drop a spot after a 3-4 week. It's nice to get a sweep against the Cubs, but the Mets gave Florida the same treatment Friday through Sunday. Who cares how much Cabrera weighs? The kid can flat out rake! .323/.397/.556/.953, with 10HR 14 2b and 37 RBI

Giants/25-27/10/7 - Zito looked like an ace for a game; so did Morris. Unfortunately, Cain and Lincecum are the only 2 sure things on the staff right now. That said, I love the upside of a Cain/Lincecum/Lowry/Zito/Sanchez staff for '08 and beyond. Bonds's slump has shown how fickle this offense truly is without its primary cog.

Pirates/23-30/11/15 - A 4-3 week may not be anything spectacular, but given the current state of National League baseball, it's enough for a four spot climb in the PnR PowerRankings. Odds are the Bucs will rejoin the bottom third of the Rankings next week with series against LA and Washington, but enjoy the bump (and 2nd in the NL Central) while it lasts.

Cardinals/22-29/12/13 - 3-4 this week, but series against the 'Stros and Reds gives a little hope to the Redbirds. If the Brewers continue their slide into next week, the Cards are amazingly in position to jump back into the NL Central Race.

Cubs/22-30/13/10 - Most drastically overhauled team continues to underperform. Actually, for anyone who was paying attention to the offseason, isn't this what we really expected? I hate to say it, Lou, but Tampa is looking pretty good right now.

Nationals/22-32/14/14- Nat's are doing their best to make sure the 2007 Season is not the record-breaking disaster that so many (myself included) predicted. DC gets the Padres and the Pirates this week.

Astros/22-31/15/11 - So...how do you drop from 6 to 15 in two weeks? You go 2-11, and get outscored 95-27. Right now, the Longhorns and Aggies would be sizeable favorites against the Astros...And I'm talking about these guys ---------->

Reds/21-34/16/16- The good news is Homer Bailey has looked sharp since returning to action. The bad news is the Reds are much more than one pitcher away from being a respectable Major League team.

NL MVP: Prince Fielder, Brewers (.293/.374/.635/1.009, 19 HR, 43 RBI, 14 2B)

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Padres (7-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .200 BAA, 92 K/21 BB/80.1 IP)

NL RoY: Hunter Pence, Astros (.348/.380/.583/.963, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 16 of 40 hits for extra bases)