Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (2 of 3)

After the top 5, the next ten have a lot of potential for movement over the next month or so (including the possibility that a more talented/high-upside prospect will win a spot and bump them from the prestigious PnR Top 15). For now, these rookies should all be considered strong '07 performers with bright futures.

6. Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado Rockies

For the record, Ianetta was slated to enter these rankings at a comfortable 9. Upon further review, however, it turns out there really aren't that many REALLY good catchers, and Ianetta has a very good chance to be just that. While Ianetta is not at the upper echelon with Mauer and Martinez (and does not really project to get there), his refined plate discipline and natural feel for working a count to get to fastballs will eventually translate into a solid average and good home run numbers (think 15-20, but mid-20s is certainly not out of reach). He is a gifted defender that, for some reason, struggled throwing out runners last year. He should congeal behind the plate (he already has a good reputation regarding the handling of a pitching staff) and will be ready to be a major contributor in 2007.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .295-9-53-1

Fantasy Impact:

Ianetta still seems to be under a lot of radars, so you should have a prime opportunity to grab a solid backstop late, while your competition is scrambling to pick up Paul Lo Duca. A better bet in keeper leagues, but should be more than adequate as a second catcher in 2 catcher leagues.

7. Kei Igawa, SP, New York Yankees

Overshadowed by Matsuzaka this offseason, Igawa comes to New York with the chance to test his non-power, power stuff. What does that mean? Igawa racked up large strike out numbers without the typical power-pitcher make-up, relying heavily on a curve/slurve sitting in the high 70's. His fastball can get up to the low 90's, but is more at home in the high 80's. Scouts differ as to how they view his stuff translating to the AL East. He will go after hitters with tenacity, and should be able to post solid numbers in the back of the Yankees rotation. Keep an eye out this spring to see how ML hitters handle his willingness to pitch in and challenge. If he commands the strike zone, he could fair alright this year. If his non-power, power stuff sits too close to the non-power end of the spectrum, it could be a long summer.

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 12-4.30-1.40-158

Fantasy Spin:

Could be worth a late round pick, or a late low bid. Realistically, his win total could fall anywhere between 10 and 16. He is an experienced pitcher, and will not be intimidated by the rake-happy AL East. Let your opponents bid up Daisuke, and Igawa as your four or five starter with a solid value pick.

8. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The five-time Japanese All-Star hit .300 with 188 homeruns over nine seasons with Yakult (averaging 35 big flys a season over the last three years), and batted .389 during last years World Baseball Classic. The power numbers should drop a fair amount as he transitions to the American game, but he is still more than capable of hitting close to 20 homeruns with a solid average. Regardless, what he loses in homeruns he will likely gain in doubles. Most scouts agree his AVG and OBP should remain about where they are (.300 and .389, respectively). Iwamura is a strong defender, nabbing six Japanese Gold Gloves at third, so his defense should be an asset to the young Devil Rays. It remains to be seen what will be done with B.J. Upton, and eventually Evan Longoria. For the immediate future, at least, count on Iwamura being a fixture at 3B and putting up respectable offensive numbers.

Projected Stats: .290-17-66-8

Fantasy Impact:

Iwamura is a viable option at CI, provided he have stocked up on some big bats elsewhere. He should be a help in average, and will contribute in RBI and HR as well. Could improve on power numbers in 2008 after a year of seasoning.

9. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Pedroia led the International League (AAA, Pawtucket) last year with an average of only one strikeout per 18.3 plate appearances. Boasting some of the best hand/eye coordination in all of baseball, Pedroia should put the ball in play consistently, and with a little bit of gap-pop. His defense is solid, posting just 17 errors in 301 games thus far, and at SS to boot. He will be the heir to the starting 2B job for the BoSox this Spring, and could thrive in the role. He will hit towards the bottom of the order, but should get a fair number of RBI opportunities. It would be foolish to try and predict him as the next Freddy Sanchez, but Dustin is more than capable of hitting .300+ as a rookie. The big knock for a MI is that he doesn't possess much speed on the basepaths.

Projected Stats: .292-8-67-3

Fantasy Impact:

Pedroia is a great option for MI. While the above projections may not blow you away, you have to factor in the possibility -- and it is a REAL possibility -- that he hits a good 20 to 30 points higher and reaches double-digit HRs. After facing Ramirez, Drew Ortiz, etc., pitchers will be itching to challenge him with a lot of fastballs, which could translate to some great fantasy production.

10. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres

The "Crushin' Russian" would have landed a little higher on this list had he(1) stayed away from Petco, and (2) not been bothered with injuries the past two seasons (including back problems last year). Kouz finished first, second and fourth in slugging (.656), hitting (.379) and OBP (.437), respectively, in all of minor league baseball in 2006. Despite this showing, the presence of Andy Marte made him expendable, and he was shipped to the Fathers for Josh Barfield. If healthy, Kouzmanoff could excel right away (you may recall he homered in his first two games with the Tribe last fall). He will open the 2007 season as starting 3B for the Pads, and should hit from day one.

Projected Stats: .293-15-69-3

Fantasy Impact:

A frustrating situation where a very large upside is negated by injury fears. He is worth a late pick or cheap bid, especially in keeper leagues. Hope you can land him for cheap and he stays healthy; be very certain you have other options if you're depending on Kouz as a starter for your squad.

Up Next: 11-15

Just Missed: Troy Tulowitzki, Col; Miguel Montero, Ari

Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (1 of 3)

This series of articles examines this year's rookie class, breaking it down into three categories: 1) those who are in line for a big league roster spots on Opening Day; 2) those who are in line for a early or mid-season call-up; and 3) those who are scheduled for a full year in the minors, but may force their way into the majors some time this summer.

Part 1 focuses on fifteen newcomers who are in great shape to start April on their major league clubs. While this article, indeed this site, was not originally intended to be a fantasy advice site, a "fantasy impact" section has been included for each player. Now, the rookies...

1. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

It appears the three years of hype still may not have done justice to Young's talent and upside. The number one overall pick in 2004 cut his teeth at the end of the '06 season, batting .317-3-10-2-.476 (BA-HR-RBI-SB-SLG) through thirty games with the Rays. While polish and talent have never been an issue, questions remain as to whether Young's ego will prove to be a detriment (see bat throwing incident, 2006). For now, I am willing to chalk up Young's rumored attitude problems to youthful naivete and the fact that Tampa has been slow to promote him based on business rather than performance. Look for a strong rookie showing, and a bright, bright future. At 22, Young has a chance to put up big numbers in all categories right away.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .302-22-89-27

Fantasy Impact:

Young should be a solid contributor in all categories. While a 24/1 (SO/BB) ratio at Tampa last year may be some cause for concern, there is simply to much polished talent here not to get excited. Should be a top 30 outfielder with top 20 upside this year and top 10 upside as early as next season.

2. Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals

It's really a toss-up between Young and Gordon at 1 and 2. The KC third baseman is, likewise, a polished hitter ready to make an impact at the major league level. A quick, fluid swing and uncanny ability to but the ball on the fat part of the bat served as the catalyst for Gordon's high average and power to all fields throughout his college career at Nebraska and his lone minor league season at AA Wichita. Gordon is also a threat on the basepaths, swiping 22 of 25 last season. The current plan is to move Mark Teahan to the outfield to make room for Gordon this Spring. Barring a disastrous March, Gordon will start his rookie campaign manning the hot corner for the Royals.

Projected Stats: .304-19-73-18

Fantasy Impact:

Gordon should be considered a safe pick for a UT or CI slot (again, barring a disastrous March). He has displayed good plate discipline, and is considered by most to have a major league bat right now. Draft a little earlier in keeper leagues, and don't be put off by a slow April. Gordon will hit, and could put up David Wright numbers as early as this year.

3. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Like the "other" Young in this rookie class, Chris Young has the tools and will be given the opportunity to be a 25/25 guy this year. Originally drafted by the White Sox, Young came to Arizona via the Vazquez deal and has exceeded all expectations. He is slated to take over in CF this March, and should have a stranglehold on the role by the middle of the month. Young has 30/30 upside, and should be a solid defender. Despite cutting down on his strikeouts, Young still tends to swing and miss a fair amount and could end up a Mike Cameron-like producer.

Projected Stats: .272-23-73-23

Fantasy Impact:

Young is the last of the "safe bets" as far as position players are concerned. He should be considered a solid number 4 outfielder. His average could dip as low as the high .250s/low .260s depending on how much progress he makes this Spring in perfecting Arizona's selective approach at the plate. The upside is high, as he should bat in the middle of a young lineup with lots of talented bats.

4. Matt Garza, SP, Minnesota Twins

Garza's totals last year through his late season call-up were less than stellar (3-6, 5.76, 1.70). So why does he rank at #4? His pure stuff and college/minor league track record are impossible to ignore. Last year's fall-off was more likely than not due to fatigue at the end of his first full season of pro pitching. Garza boasts a four pitch arsenal, with a fast ball that sits in the mid-nineties. Garza is a power arm with solid breaking stuff. His numbers in the minors are filthy (.201 BA against, 243K/211IP, 2.56 ERA), and skewed negatively by a rough transition from Rookie Ball to Low A his first year. Garza will focus on command with his fastball this Spring and projects as a number 2 only because the number 1 spot in the Twins rotation is currently held by the best pitcher on the planet. The former Fresno State Bulldog is primed for a breakout season as the Twins number 4 or 5 starter -- do you really think Sidney Ponson is going to wrestle away a rotation spot from him?

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 13-4.10-1.30-165

Fantasy Impact:

Garza is a great option for a 4 or 5 SP. While his stat line for the Twins in '06 may be cause for concern among prognosticators, it has driven down his price and draft level for fantasy purposes. He should be available late in drafts, and cheap in auctions. Jump aboard the Garza bandwagon right now and ride it to solid WHIP/ERA/SO numbers and double-digit wins this year.

5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox

Daisuke (you will never, ever see "Dice-K" on this site...ever) is the safest bet this year when it comes to starting pitchers. It's difficult to rate Matsuzaka this low on the rookie list and there are many arguments for him as the top newcomer to MLB. For starters, he has six pitches that can rate as plus pitches, and two pitches that rate as plus-plus. He was named MVP in all three of his World Baseball Classic starts, has pitched in two Olympics, and has over eight full seasons of pro experience, despite being just 26 years of age. Most scouts project him as a number 1, with a floor as a number 2. There may be issues, however, with his tendency to work up in the strike zone. Further, like many Japanese pitchers, he uses his flatter 4-seam fastball a great deal more than his 2-seam, which does not bode well in an AL East where every team will have an improved offense. Ultimately, the former Lion (note we have given Seibu some love, rather than the tired Team Japan pictures) should produce a first year full of dominating starts and rough outings in about equal measure. Matsuzaka has already shown himself to be a hard worker and mentally tough, and there is no doubt he will adapt in time. He should struggle less and less over the next 18 months, and assume the role of staff ace by late 2008.

Project Stats: 15-3.91-1.28-170

Fantasy Impact:

Matsuzaka will be a strong fantasy pitcher this year, but will likely be overvalued in most leagues. If he can be had for cheap, or at a reasonable round, you should jump on him. Keep in mind he will be facing a tough AL East, and will need to focus on working down in the zone more through the Spring. He is almost the polar opposite of Garza, who provides great upside at a likely undervalued price. Watch his performances in March and do your best not to the let the hype inflate your ranking. The best strategy may be to let someone else grab him, and wait for some bad outings to launch trade talks.

Just Missed:

None -- These are the clear Top 5