Part 1 focuses on fifteen newcomers who are in great shape to start April on their major league clubs. While this article, indeed this site, was not originally intended to be a fantasy advice site, a "fantasy impact" section has been included for each player. Now, the rookies...
1. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
It appears the three years of hype still may not have done justice to Young's talent and upside. The number one overall pick in 2004 cut his teeth at the end of the '06 season, batting .317-3-10-2-.476 (BA-HR-RBI-SB-SLG) through thirty games with the Rays. While polish and talent have never been an issue, questions remain as to whether Young's ego will prove to be a detriment (see bat throwing incident, 2006). For now, I am willing to chalk up Young's rumored attitude problems to youthful naivete and the fact that Tampa has been slow to promote him based on business rather than performance. Look for a strong rookie showing, and a bright, bright future. At 22, Young has a chance to put up big numbers in all categories right away.
Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .302-22-89-27
Fantasy Impact:
Young should be a solid contributor in all categories. While a 24/1 (SO/BB) ratio at Tampa last year may be some cause for concern, there is simply to much polished talent here not to get excited. Should be a top 30 outfielder with top 20 upside this year and top 10 upside as early as next season.
2. Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals
It's really a toss-up between Young and Gordon at 1 and 2. The KC third baseman is, likewise, a polished hitter ready to make an impact at the major league level. A quick, fluid swing and uncanny ability to but the ball on the fat part of the bat served as the catalyst for Gordon's high average and power to all fields throughout his college career at Nebraska and his lone minor league season at AA Wichita. Gordon is also a threat on the basepaths, swiping 22 of 25 last season. The current plan is to move Mark Teahan to the outfield to make room for Gordon this Spring. Barring a disastrous March, Gordon will start his rookie campaign manning the hot corner for the Royals.
Projected Stats: .304-19-73-18
Fantasy Impact:
Gordon should be considered a safe pick for a UT or CI slot (again, barring a disastrous March). He has displayed good plate discipline, and is considered by most to have a major league bat right now. Draft a little earlier in keeper leagues, and don't be put off by a slow April. Gordon will hit, and could put up David Wright numbers as early as this year.
Like the "other" Young in this rookie class, Chris Young has the tools and will be given the opportunity to be a 25/25 guy this year. Originally drafted by the White Sox, Young came to Arizona via the Vazquez deal and has exceeded all expectations. He is slated to take over in CF this March, and should have a stranglehold on the role by the middle of the month. Young has 30/30 upside, and should be a solid defender. Despite cutting down on his strikeouts, Young still tends to swing and miss a fair amount and could end up a Mike Cameron-like producer.
Projected Stats: .272-23-73-23
Fantasy Impact:
Young is the last of the "safe bets" as far as position players are concerned. He should be considered a solid number 4 outfielder. His average could dip as low as the high .250s/low .260s depending on how much progress he makes this Spring in perfecting Arizona's selective approach at the plate. The upside is high, as he should bat in the middle of a young lineup with lots of talented bats.
4. Matt Garza, SP, Minnesota Twins
Garza's totals last year through his late season call-up were less than stellar (3-6, 5.76, 1.70). So why does he rank at #4? His pure stuff and college/minor league track record are impossible to ignore. Last year's fall-off was more likely than not due to fatigue at the end of his first full season of pro pitching. Garza boasts a four pitch arsenal, with a fast ball that sits in the mid-nineties. Garza is a power arm with solid breaking stuff. His numbers in the minors are filthy (.201 BA against, 243K/211IP, 2.56 ERA), and skewed negatively by a rough transition from Rookie Ball to Low A his first year. Garza will focus on command with his fastball this Spring and projects as a number 2 only because the number 1 spot in the Twins rotation is currently held by the best pitcher on the planet. The former Fresno State Bulldog is primed for a breakout season as the Twins number 4 or 5 starter -- do you really think Sidney Ponson is going to wrestle away a rotation spot from him?
Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 13-4.10-1.30-165
Fantasy Impact:
Garza is a great option for a 4 or 5 SP. While his stat line for the Twins in '06 may be cause for concern among prognosticators, it has driven down his price and draft level for fantasy purposes. He should be available late in drafts, and cheap in auctions. Jump aboard the Garza bandwagon right now and ride it to solid WHIP/ERA/SO numbers and double-digit wins this year.
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox
Daisuke (you will never, ever see "Dice-K" on this site...ever) is the safest bet this year when it comes to starting pitchers. It's difficult to rate Matsuzaka this low on the rookie list and there are many arguments for him as the top newcomer to MLB. For starters, he has six pitches that can rate as plus pitches, and two pitches that rate as plus-plus. He was named MVP in all three of his World Baseball Classic starts, has pitched in two Olympics, and has over eight full seasons of pro experience, despite being just 26 years of age. Most scouts project him as a number 1, with a floor as a number 2. There may be issues, however, with his tendency to work up in the strike zone. Further, like many Japanese pitchers, he uses his flatter 4-seam fastball a great deal more than his 2-seam, which does not bode well in an AL East where every team will have an improved offense. Ultimately, the former Lion (note we have given Seibu some love, rather than the tired Team Japan pictures) should produce a first year full of dominating starts and rough outings in about equal measure. Matsuzaka has already shown himself to be a hard worker and mentally tough, and there is no doubt he will adapt in time. He should struggle less and less over the next 18 months, and assume the role of staff ace by late 2008.
Project Stats: 15-3.91-1.28-170
Fantasy Impact:
Matsuzaka will be a strong fantasy pitcher this year, but will likely be overvalued in most leagues. If he can be had for cheap, or at a reasonable round, you should jump on him. Keep in mind he will be facing a tough AL East, and will need to focus on working down in the zone more through the Spring. He is almost the polar opposite of Garza, who provides great upside at a likely undervalued price. Watch his performances in March and do your best not to the let the hype inflate your ranking. The best strategy may be to let someone else grab him, and wait for some bad outings to launch trade talks.
Just Missed:
None -- These are the clear Top 5
1 comment:
Solid start. Looking forward to the rest of them.
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