Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Rookies/Prospects: Top 15 (2 of 3)

After the top 5, the next ten have a lot of potential for movement over the next month or so (including the possibility that a more talented/high-upside prospect will win a spot and bump them from the prestigious PnR Top 15). For now, these rookies should all be considered strong '07 performers with bright futures.

6. Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado Rockies

For the record, Ianetta was slated to enter these rankings at a comfortable 9. Upon further review, however, it turns out there really aren't that many REALLY good catchers, and Ianetta has a very good chance to be just that. While Ianetta is not at the upper echelon with Mauer and Martinez (and does not really project to get there), his refined plate discipline and natural feel for working a count to get to fastballs will eventually translate into a solid average and good home run numbers (think 15-20, but mid-20s is certainly not out of reach). He is a gifted defender that, for some reason, struggled throwing out runners last year. He should congeal behind the plate (he already has a good reputation regarding the handling of a pitching staff) and will be ready to be a major contributor in 2007.

Projected Stats (BA-HR-RBI-SB): .295-9-53-1

Fantasy Impact:
Ianetta still seems to be under a lot of radars, so you should have a prime opportunity to grab a solid backstop late, while your competition is scrambling to pick up Paul Lo Duca. A better bet in keeper leagues, but should be more than adequate as a second catcher in 2 catcher leagues.

7. Kei Igawa, SP, New York Yankees

Overshadowed by Matsuzaka this offseason, Igawa comes to New York with the chance to test his non-power, power stuff. What does that mean? Igawa racked up large strike out numbers without the typical power-pitcher make-up, relying heavily on a curve/slurve sitting in the high 70's. His fastball can get up to the low 90's, but is more at home in the high 80's. Scouts differ as to how they view his stuff translating to the AL East. He will go after hitters with tenacity, and should be able to post solid numbers in the back of the Yankees rotation. Keep an eye out this spring to see how ML hitters handle his willingness to pitch in and challenge. If he commands the strike zone, he could fair alright this year. If his non-power, power stuff sits too close to the non-power end of the spectrum, it could be a long summer.

Projected Stats (W-ERA-WHIP-SO): 12-4.30-1.40-158
Fantasy Spin:
Could be worth a late round pick, or a late low bid. Realistically, his win total could fall anywhere between 10 and 16. He is an experienced pitcher, and will not be intimidated by the rake-happy AL East. Let your opponents bid up Daisuke, and Igawa as your four or five starter with a solid value pick.
8. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The five-time Japanese All-Star hit .300 with 188 homeruns over nine seasons with Yakult (averaging 35 big flys a season over the last three years), and batted .389 during last years World Baseball Classic. The power numbers should drop a fair amount as he transitions to the American game, but he is still more than capable of hitting close to 20 homeruns with a solid average. Regardless, what he loses in homeruns he will likely gain in doubles. Most scouts agree his AVG and OBP should remain about where they are (.300 and .389, respectively). Iwamura is a strong defender, nabbing six Japanese Gold Gloves at third, so his defense should be an asset to the young Devil Rays. It remains to be seen what will be done with B.J. Upton, and eventually Evan Longoria. For the immediate future, at least, count on Iwamura being a fixture at 3B and putting up respectable offensive numbers.

Projected Stats: .290-17-66-8

Fantasy Impact:
Iwamura is a viable option at CI, provided he have stocked up on some big bats elsewhere. He should be a help in average, and will contribute in RBI and HR as well. Could improve on power numbers in 2008 after a year of seasoning.

9. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Pedroia led the International League (AAA, Pawtucket) last year with an average of only one strikeout per 18.3 plate appearances. Boasting some of the best hand/eye coordination in all of baseball, Pedroia should put the ball in play consistently, and with a little bit of gap-pop. His defense is solid, posting just 17 errors in 301 games thus far, and at SS to boot. He will be the heir to the starting 2B job for the BoSox this Spring, and could thrive in the role. He will hit towards the bottom of the order, but should get a fair number of RBI opportunities. It would be foolish to try and predict him as the next Freddy Sanchez, but Dustin is more than capable of hitting .300+ as a rookie. The big knock for a MI is that he doesn't possess much speed on the basepaths.
Projected Stats: .292-8-67-3

Fantasy Impact:
Pedroia is a great option for MI. While the above projections may not blow you away, you have to factor in the possibility -- and it is a REAL possibility -- that he hits a good 20 to 30 points higher and reaches double-digit HRs. After facing Ramirez, Drew Ortiz, etc., pitchers will be itching to challenge him with a lot of fastballs, which could translate to some great fantasy production.

10. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego Padres

The "Crushin' Russian" would have landed a little higher on this list had he(1) stayed away from Petco, and (2) not been bothered with injuries the past two seasons (including back problems last year). Kouz finished first, second and fourth in slugging (.656), hitting (.379) and OBP (.437), respectively, in all of minor league baseball in 2006. Despite this showing, the presence of Andy Marte made him expendable, and he was shipped to the Fathers for Josh Barfield. If healthy, Kouzmanoff could excel right away (you may recall he homered in his first two games with the Tribe last fall). He will open the 2007 season as starting 3B for the Pads, and should hit from day one.
Projected Stats: .293-15-69-3
Fantasy Impact:
A frustrating situation where a very large upside is negated by injury fears. He is worth a late pick or cheap bid, especially in keeper leagues. Hope you can land him for cheap and he stays healthy; be very certain you have other options if you're depending on Kouz as a starter for your squad.
Up Next: 11-15
Just Missed: Troy Tulowitzki, Col; Miguel Montero, Ari

3 comments:

Unknown said...

keep it up stot, i don't know how you have time to do this, but it is sweet if you can keep it goin... should be a good year for the birds

Daanish said...

Yo - I was alerted to this page by David F. Not to be a stickler... (okay, to be a stickler), but it's Kevin Kouzmanoff, not Ken. Otherwise, great stuff!

Nick J Faleris said...

You are correct, sir. Editor Award and one massage from David F. coming your way...