Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Road to Omaha: Regionals (Part 2 of 4)

Wichita Regional:
The Field:
#1 Wichita State (49-19), #2 Arizona (40-15), #3 Oral Roberts (40-15), #4 New Orleans (37-24)

Best Bet:
Wichita State - Wichita State came into '07 as a preseason top 10 team, and stayed consistent throughout the Spring. Last week's loss to Creighton was no real shock, but the loss to Missouri State (with MSU ace Detwiler pulled after 3 .1 IP with a split nail) was. Still, the Shockers remain the most talented team in the Wichita Regional, and should be slight favorites over Arizona, who finished second in the PAC 10. Wichita State's intimidating pitching staff (2.67 staff ERA, .229 staff BAA) will be crucial, as they will face off against three of the top Division I pitchers in Guilmet (Arizona), Chapman (Oral Roberts) and Hefner (Oral Roberts).

Sleeper:
Oral Roberts - Chance Chapman and Jeremy Hefner (pictured right) will be the key to a possible Oral Roberts upset and trip to the Super Regionals. Hefner (9-1, 2.53, .208, 105K, 25BB, 81.2 IP)went the distance in 5 of his 10 starts this season, making him a solid choice for Friday's meeting with Arizona. Potentially, Chapman (8-1, 1.23, . 202, 121K, 26BB, 88 IP) would get the ball next, and he and a fully rested staff would be responsible for winning Saturday and 1 of 2 on Sunday. ORU won't out-slug anyone in the Regional, but Hefner and Chapman should keep them in the game through the 7th, 8th and 9th inning -- anything can happen at that point.

Players to Watch:
Preston Guilmet, RHP, Arizona (pictured left) - PAC 10 ace sported an 11-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and .203 BAA. Guilmet also K'd 133 against 30 BBs in 126 IP. If the Wildcats can get past Oral Roberts with Mills or Coulon, Guilmet would give them an excellent chance against the Shockers on Saturday. It's questionable, however, whether 'Zona can afford to hold their ace out until the second game of the Regional, as Oral Roberts sports two co-aces with Friday stuff.

Chance Chapman, RHP, Oral Roberts - Chapman, the career and season ERA leader at ORU (1.34 and 1.23, respectively), posted an 8-1 record this season, while striking out a whopping 121 batters in just 88 innings. While both Chapman and Hefner will be fun to watch, the big game will be Saturday against Wichita State (my guess is Chapman gets the call).

Round Rock Regional:
The Field:
#1 Texas (44-15), #2 UC Irvine (40-15-1), #3 Wake Forest (33-27), #4 Brown (27-19)

Best Bet:
Texas - Ranked 4th nationally entering the Regionals, the Longhorns face a tough Irvine team and surprisingly able Brown offense out of the Ivy League. Texas matches up favorably against all three possible opponents, and boasts an offense that should keep them in every game (outscored opponents 423-236, or 3.16 runs a game). As with all Texas teams, however, the true strength is the pitching. The depth and talent gives the Longhorns an excellent chance to advance even if they drop one to UC-Irvine and are forced into an extra game or two (four starters this year ended with ERAs under 3, while a fifth sported an ERA of 3.97; as a team, opponents batted .246 against the staff). While Irvine advancing wouldn't be a total shock, Texas looks well suited to make another trip to the Super Regionals, and another run at Omaha.

Quasi-Sleeper:
UC Irvine - Hard to call the Anteaters a sleeper, but we'll give them the quasi-sleeper nod. Advancing out of the Round Rock Regional will be a tall order, but the Game 1 match-up with Wake makes it a little easier, as they'll likely be able to hold staff ace Wes Etheridge out until Saturday's potential meeting with the Longhorns. UC Irvine may have the biggest gripe with the selection committee, as many thought the Anteaters could potentially end up hosting a Regional, but instead wound up in Texas's backyard. Texas has the big bats to hit their way out of a tough Regional, but don't be surprised if UC-I sneaks out of Round Rock on Monday evening.

Players to Watch:
Kyle Russell, OF, Texas (pictured above right) - While Texas is loaded with talented hitters, Russell's pure power makes him, arguably, the most fun to watch (.341/.452/.825/1.277, 27 HR, 70 RBI, 174 TB in 211 AB). Look forward to some spectacular shots, and some spectacular misses (Russell also lead the team with 61 strikeouts).

Wes Etheridge, RHP, UC Irvine (pictured right) - Etheridge turned in an impressive season for the Anteaters (11-4, 2.88, .264, 96K, 24BB, 109.1 IP), and will likely be the arm they turn to on Saturday against Texas. Provided Scott Gorgon (the only other UC-I pitcher to start 10 or more games) can lead them past Wake on Friday, Etheridge's Saturday start will be the most important of the Regional.

Looking Ahead:
Super Regional Match-Up:
Oral Roberts (3-1) at Texas (4-1) - Oral Roberts pulls off the upset with wins in their first two games against 'Zona and Wichita State. The Shockers eliminate the Wildcats on Sunday morning before dropping to ORU in the rubber match on Monday. Texas stumbles on Saturday against Etheridge and UC Irvine, before knocking off Wake and Irvine on Sunday and Irvine on Monday to advance.

Heading to Omaha:
Texas (2-1 over Oral Roberts) - The Golden Eagles steal one between two solid starts from Chapman and Hefner, but the Texas bats prove too much. The Longhorns advance to Omaha in a Game 3 route.

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